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Championship

Referee: M Dean

Middlesbrough

S S T S U

4–1

Full-time

Derby

S T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

This season — Championship · 30/31 matches

Win Ø 38%

47%

29%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

30%

42%

Both score Ø 49%

43%

55%

Average goals

2,1

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

45% Possession 55%

14 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 8. · Derby 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	30	19	7	4	+52	64
2	Bournemouth	30	16	8	6	+22	56
3	Blackburn	32	16	8	8	+16	56
4	QPR	30	15	7	8	+12	52
5	Sheffield United	30	15	6	9	+12	51
6	West Brom	32	14	9	9	+12	51
7	Huddersfield	31	13	11	7	+8	50
8	Middlesbrough	30	14	7	9	+8	49
9	Preston	33	12	12	9	+1	48
10	Luton	29	13	8	8	+11	47
11	Coventry	30	13	8	9	+10	47
12	Nott'm Forest	29	13	6	10	+10	45
13	Stoke	30	13	6	11	+8	45
14	Blackpool	31	12	8	11	+0	44
15	Bristol City	32	11	7	14	-13	40
16	Derby	31	9	12	10	-1	39
17	Swansea	30	10	8	12	-6	38
18	Millwall	30	9	10	11	-4	37
19	Cardiff	31	10	6	15	-9	36
20	Birmingham	33	8	10	15	-18	34
21	Hull	31	9	5	17	-10	32
22	Reading	30	9	4	17	-21	31
23	Peterborough	28	5	5	18	-36	20
24	Peterboro	29	5	5	19	-37	20
25	Barnsley	30	2	9	19	-27	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	17	11	3	3	+16	36
2	Fulham	16	10	4	2	+27	34
3	West Brom	15	9	5	1	+16	32
4	Middlesbrough	16	10	2	4	+10	32
5	Coventry	16	9	3	4	+12	30
6	QPR	16	8	5	3	+10	29
7	Huddersfield	15	8	5	2	+8	29
8	Blackpool	17	9	2	6	+2	29
9	Luton	15	8	4	3	+10	28
10	Bournemouth	14	8	3	3	+14	27
11	Stoke	16	8	3	5	+8	27
12	Derby	15	7	6	2	+7	27
13	Preston	16	6	8	2	+4	26
14	Swansea	15	7	4	4	+6	25
15	Sheffield United	13	7	2	4	+12	23
16	Millwall	14	6	5	3	+4	23
17	Nott'm Forest	15	7	2	6	+3	23
18	Bristol City	16	6	5	5	+0	23
19	Birmingham	16	5	5	6	-3	20
20	Reading	16	5	4	7	-8	19
21	Hull	16	5	3	8	-3	18
22	Cardiff	15	5	1	9	-1	16
23	Peterborough	13	4	4	5	-2	16
24	Peterboro	14	4	4	6	-3	16
25	Barnsley	14	2	4	8	-9	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	14	9	3	2	+25	30
2	Bournemouth	16	8	5	3	+8	29
3	Sheffield United	17	8	4	5	+0	28
4	QPR	14	7	2	5	+2	23
5	Nott'm Forest	14	6	4	4	+7	22
6	Preston	17	6	4	7	-3	22
7	Huddersfield	16	5	6	5	+0	21
8	Blackburn	15	5	5	5	+0	20
9	Cardiff	16	5	5	6	-8	20
10	Luton	14	5	4	5	+1	19
11	West Brom	17	5	4	8	-4	19
12	Stoke	14	5	3	6	+0	18
13	Coventry	14	4	5	5	-2	17
14	Middlesbrough	14	4	5	5	-2	17
15	Bristol City	16	5	2	9	-13	17
16	Blackpool	14	3	6	5	-2	15
17	Hull	15	4	2	9	-7	14
18	Millwall	16	3	5	8	-8	14
19	Birmingham	17	3	5	9	-15	14
20	Swansea	15	3	4	8	-12	13
21	Derby	16	2	6	8	-8	12
22	Reading	14	4	0	10	-13	12
23	Barnsley	16	0	5	11	-18	5
24	Peterboro	15	1	1	13	-34	4
25	Peterborough	15	1	1	13	-34	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.