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Championship

Referee: P Bankes

Middlesbrough

S S U U T

3–0

Full-time

Derby

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,0

1,7

Scored

0,7

0,5

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

This season — Championship · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 21%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 13%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,3

1,8

Scored

0,8

0,4

Conceded

0,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

37% Possession 63%

10 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

4 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 11. · Derby 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	13	8	3	2	+7	27
2	Bournemouth	13	7	5	1	+10	26
3	Bristol City	12	7	2	3	+5	23
4	Watford	12	6	4	2	+5	22
5	Reading	12	7	1	4	+3	22
6	Swansea	11	6	3	2	+7	21
7	Stoke	13	6	3	4	+3	21
8	Brentford	12	5	4	3	+6	19
9	Luton	13	5	4	4	-2	19
10	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	+10	18
11	Middlesbrough	12	4	6	2	+3	18
12	Millwall	12	4	6	2	+2	18
13	QPR	13	4	5	4	-3	17
14	Barnsley	13	4	4	5	+0	16
15	Preston	13	5	1	7	-1	16
16	Huddersfield	13	4	3	6	-2	15
17	Birmingham	13	3	6	4	-2	15
18	Cardiff	12	3	5	4	+1	14
19	Rotherham	13	3	3	7	-4	12
20	Sheffield Weds	12	3	3	6	-5	12
21	Nott'm Forest	13	3	3	7	-7	12
22	Coventry	12	2	3	7	-11	9
23	Wycombe	13	2	3	8	-13	9
24	Derby	12	1	3	8	-12	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	7	5	2	0	+7	17
2	Watford	6	5	1	0	+6	16
3	Swansea	6	4	1	1	+5	13
4	QPR	7	3	3	1	+2	12
5	Reading	6	4	0	2	+1	12
6	Barnsley	7	3	2	2	+4	11
7	Middlesbrough	6	3	2	1	+3	11
8	Norwich	6	3	2	1	+2	11
9	Stoke	7	3	2	2	+0	11
10	Bristol City	6	3	1	2	+1	10
11	Luton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
12	Blackburn	6	2	2	2	+4	8
13	Brentford	5	2	2	1	+3	8
14	Nott'm Forest	6	2	2	2	+0	8
15	Coventry	6	2	2	2	-4	8
16	Rotherham	6	2	1	3	+1	7
17	Millwall	6	1	4	1	-1	7
18	Huddersfield	6	2	1	3	-1	7
19	Birmingham	6	2	1	3	-2	7
20	Sheffield Weds	6	1	3	2	-1	6
21	Wycombe	7	1	3	3	-3	6
22	Cardiff	6	1	2	3	-1	5
23	Preston	7	1	0	6	-8	3
24	Derby	6	0	1	5	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	7	5	1	1	+5	16
2	Preston	6	4	1	1	+7	13
3	Bristol City	6	4	1	1	+4	13
4	Brentford	7	3	2	2	+3	11
5	Millwall	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	Blackburn	7	3	1	3	+6	10
7	Stoke	6	3	1	2	+3	10
8	Reading	6	3	1	2	+2	10
9	Luton	6	3	1	2	+0	10
10	Bournemouth	6	2	3	1	+3	9
11	Cardiff	6	2	3	1	+2	9
12	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+2	8
13	Birmingham	7	1	5	1	+0	8
14	Huddersfield	7	2	2	3	-1	8
15	Middlesbrough	6	1	4	1	+0	7
16	Watford	6	1	3	2	-1	6
17	Sheffield Weds	6	2	0	4	-4	6
18	Derby	6	1	2	3	-2	5
19	Barnsley	6	1	2	3	-4	5
20	QPR	6	1	2	3	-5	5
21	Rotherham	7	1	2	4	-5	5
22	Nott'm Forest	7	1	1	5	-7	4
23	Wycombe	6	1	0	5	-10	3
24	Coventry	6	0	1	5	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.