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League Cup

Referee: A Backhouse

Leeds

T U S T U

0–3

Full-time

Middlesbrough

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,8

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

58% Possession 42%

12 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
2	Watford	1	1	0	0	+5	3
3	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Tranmere	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Preston	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Barrow	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Fleetwood Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Shrewsbury	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Grimsby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
67	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
68	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	1	1	0	0	+5	3
2	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Tranmere	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Preston	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Barrow	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Fleetwood Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Shrewsbury	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Grimsby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
34	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
2	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
31	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.