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Ekstraklasa

Referee: Tomasz Kwiatkowski

Nieciecza

S T U T U

0–2

Full-time

Lech Poznan

U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nieciecza Lech Poznan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 8/6 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

38%

83%

Both score Ø 82%

63%

100%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,4

1,8

Conceded

1,4

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

54% Possession 46%

13 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 10

0 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nieciecza 12. · Lech Poznan 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cracovia	8	5	2	1	+7	+2.5	17
2	Wisla Plock	8	5	1	2	+5	+6.2	16
3	Jagiellonia	7	5	1	1	+4	-2.5	16
4	Gornik Zabrze	8	5	0	3	+6	-0.2	15
5	Korona Kielce	9	4	3	2	+4	-2.1	15
6	Radomiak Radom	9	3	2	4	-1	-0.1	11
7	Legia	6	3	1	2	+5	+3.6	10
8	Widzew Lodz	8	3	1	4	+2	+2.2	10
9	Lech Poznan	6	3	1	2	-1	+6.0	10
10	Pogon Szczecin	8	3	1	4	-3	+2.0	10
11	Zaglebie	7	2	3	2	+3	-1.8	9
12	Nieciecza	8	2	3	3	+0	-0.2	9
13	Motor Lublin	7	2	3	2	-3	-1.0	9
14	Arka Gdynia	9	2	3	4	-5	-3.8	9
15	Lechia Gdansk	8	2	2	4	-5	-2.9	8
16	GKS Katowice	9	2	1	6	-10	-6.8	7
17	Rakow	6	2	0	4	-4	-0.3	6
18	Piast Gliwice	7	0	4	3	-4	-0.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wisla Plock	5	4	0	1	+5	+5.2	12
2	Radomiak Radom	5	3	1	1	+6	+1.2	10
3	Widzew Lodz	5	3	1	1	+5	+1.1	10
4	Cracovia	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.6	10
5	Korona Kielce	4	3	0	1	+4	+0.0	9
6	Jagiellonia	4	3	0	1	+2	-2.5	9
7	Arka Gdynia	4	2	2	0	+2	-1.8	8
8	Legia	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.3	7
9	Lechia Gdansk	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.3	7
10	GKS Katowice	5	2	1	2	+0	-3.0	7
11	Lech Poznan	5	2	1	2	-2	+4.2	7
12	Pogon Szczecin	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.3	6
13	Gornik Zabrze	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.4	6
14	Zaglebie	3	1	2	0	+4	+1.2	5
15	Motor Lublin	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.9	5
16	Piast Gliwice	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.1	2
17	Nieciecza	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.3	1
18	Rakow	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gornik Zabrze	4	3	0	1	+4	-1.7	9
2	Nieciecza	5	2	2	1	+3	-0.5	8
3	Cracovia	4	2	1	1	+3	-0.0	7
4	Jagiellonia	3	2	1	0	+2	–	7
5	Korona Kielce	5	1	3	1	+0	-2.2	6
6	Rakow	4	2	0	2	-2	+0.8	6
7	Wisla Plock	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
8	Zaglebie	4	1	1	2	-1	-3.0	4
9	Motor Lublin	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.9	4
10	Pogon Szczecin	5	1	1	3	-5	+1.6	4
11	Lech Poznan	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
12	Legia	3	1	0	2	+0	+1.2	3
13	Piast Gliwice	4	0	2	2	-3	-0.8	2
14	Lechia Gdansk	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.2	1
15	Radomiak Radom	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.3	1
16	Arka Gdynia	5	0	1	4	-7	-2.0	1
17	Widzew Lodz	3	0	0	3	-3	+1.1	0
18	GKS Katowice	4	0	0	4	-10	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.