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Eredivisie

Referee: D Higler

NAC Breda

T S T T U

2–1

Full-time

Heracles

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

NAC Breda Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

1,7

3,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-2,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

0,8

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

2,6

3,6

Scored

0,8

0,4

Conceded

1,8

3,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-2,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,50 xG 1,09

63% Possession 37%

17 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 4

9 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match NAC Breda 15. · Heracles 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	5	5	0	0	+10	+7.2	15
2	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	0	1	+9	+3.0	12
3	Groningen	6	4	0	2	+3	+0.2	12
4	Ajax	5	3	2	0	+6	+6.7	11
5	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.3	10
6	For Sittard	6	3	1	2	+1	-2.9	10
7	Nijmegen	5	3	0	2	+8	+7.2	9
8	Utrecht	6	3	0	3	+6	+1.3	9
9	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	0	3	-8	-4.7	9
10	Twente	6	2	1	3	+1	+4.3	7
11	Go Ahead Eagles	5	1	3	1	+0	-2.1	6
12	Zwolle	4	2	0	2	-1	-1.0	6
13	Excelsior	6	2	0	4	-8	-5.3	6
14	Volendam	6	0	4	2	-4	-4.8	4
15	NAC Breda	5	1	1	3	-5	-7.1	4
16	Telstar	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.2	4
17	Heerenveen	5	0	2	3	-3	+4.3	2
18	Heracles	5	0	0	5	-14	-9.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Groningen	3	3	0	0	+7	+0.9	9
2	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.0	9
3	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.8	9
4	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.8	7
5	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+6	+5.0	6
6	Utrecht	3	2	0	1	+6	+1.5	6
7	PSV Eindhoven	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.9	6
8	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.6	4
9	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
10	NAC Breda	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
11	Excelsior	3	1	0	2	-1	-3.6	3
12	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
13	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	0	2	-7	-3.4	3
14	Heerenveen	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.7	2
15	Volendam	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.9	2
16	Twente	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.8	1
17	Telstar	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.4	1
18	Heracles	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.2	7
2	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.4	6
3	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.0	6
4	Twente	4	2	0	2	+3	+3.5	6
5	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	0	1	-1	-1.4	6
6	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.3	3
7	Utrecht	3	1	0	2	+0	-0.1	3
8	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
9	For Sittard	3	1	0	2	-1	-3.7	3
10	Telstar	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.6	3
11	Groningen	3	1	0	2	-4	-0.8	3
12	Excelsior	3	1	0	2	-7	-1.6	3
13	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.7	2
14	Ajax	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.7	2
15	Volendam	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.9	2
16	NAC Breda	3	0	1	2	-5	-7.5	1
17	Heerenveen	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.6	0
18	Heracles	3	0	0	3	-10	-5.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.