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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

Volendam

U U U U T

1–2

Full-time

Excelsior

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Volendam Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

4,0

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,8

2,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

0,8

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

80%

40%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,2

0,6

Conceded

1,8

2,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,48 xG 1,76

49% Possession 51%

14 Shots 15

7 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Volendam 13. · Excelsior 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	5	5	0	0	+10	+7.2	15
2	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	0	1	+9	+3.0	12
3	Ajax	5	3	2	0	+6	+6.7	11
4	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.3	10
5	Nijmegen	5	3	0	2	+8	+7.2	9
6	Utrecht	5	3	0	2	+7	+1.5	9
7	Groningen	5	3	0	2	+1	-0.8	9
8	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	0	3	-8	-4.7	9
9	Twente	6	2	1	3	+1	+4.3	7
10	For Sittard	5	2	1	2	+0	-3.1	7
11	Go Ahead Eagles	5	1	3	1	+0	-2.1	6
12	Zwolle	4	2	0	2	-1	-1.0	6
13	Volendam	5	0	4	1	-3	-4.5	4
14	Telstar	5	1	1	3	-4	-0.2	4
15	NAC Breda	5	1	1	3	-5	-7.1	4
16	Excelsior	5	1	0	4	-9	-5.6	3
17	Heerenveen	5	0	2	3	-3	+4.3	2
18	Heracles	5	0	0	5	-14	-9.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.0	9
2	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.8	9
3	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+6	+5.0	6
4	Utrecht	3	2	0	1	+6	+1.5	6
5	PSV Eindhoven	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.9	6
6	Groningen	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.0	6
7	For Sittard	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
8	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.6	4
9	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
10	NAC Breda	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
11	Excelsior	3	1	0	2	-1	-3.6	3
12	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
13	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	0	2	-7	-3.4	3
14	Volendam	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
15	Heerenveen	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.7	2
16	Twente	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.8	1
17	Telstar	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.4	1
18	Heracles	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.2	7
2	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.4	6
3	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.0	6
4	Twente	4	2	0	2	+3	+3.5	6
5	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	0	1	-1	-1.4	6
6	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.3	3
7	Utrecht	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.0	3
8	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
9	Telstar	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
10	For Sittard	3	1	0	2	-1	-3.7	3
11	Groningen	3	1	0	2	-4	-0.8	3
12	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.7	2
13	Ajax	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.7	2
14	Volendam	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.9	2
15	NAC Breda	3	0	1	2	-5	-7.5	1
16	Heerenveen	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.6	0
17	Excelsior	2	0	0	2	-8	-1.9	0
18	Heracles	3	0	0	3	-10	-5.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.