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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Brest

T U T T T

4–1

Full-time

Nice

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,3

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

2,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

1,3

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,03 xG 2,33

38% Possession 62%

11 Shots 21

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brest 17. · Nice 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	4	0	0	+7	+3.2	12
2	Lyon	5	4	0	1	+4	+4.7	12
3	Lille	4	3	1	0	+8	+4.7	10
4	Monaco	4	3	0	1	+3	+0.6	9
5	Strasbourg	4	3	0	1	+2	+2.1	9
6	Rennes	5	2	2	1	-1	-3.2	8
7	Marseille	4	2	0	2	+5	+1.8	6
8	Nice	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.3	6
9	Lens	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.2	6
10	Toulouse	4	2	0	2	-1	-1.7	6
11	Paris FC	4	2	0	2	-2	-1.4	6
12	Angers	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.9	5
13	Nantes	5	1	1	3	-2	-3.1	4
14	Le Havre	4	1	0	3	-2	+0.9	3
15	Auxerre	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.9	3
16	Lorient	4	1	0	3	-7	-1.2	3
17	Brest	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.8	1
18	Metz	4	0	1	3	-5	-4.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lyon	3	3	0	0	+5	+5.1	9
2	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+7	+3.9	6
3	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.5	6
4	Rennes	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
5	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.5	6
6	Nice	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.6	6
7	Lille	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.1	6
8	Strasbourg	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.0	6
9	Angers	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
10	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
11	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.8	3
12	Lens	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.9	3
13	Paris FC	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
14	Auxerre	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
15	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.1	3
16	Lorient	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.0	3
17	Brest	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.4	1
18	Metz	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
2	Lille	2	1	1	0	+6	+1.6	4
3	Strasbourg	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
4	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.6	3
5	Monaco	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
6	Lyon	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
7	Lens	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.7	3
8	Paris FC	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.8	3
9	Rennes	3	0	2	1	-4	-3.5	2
10	Angers	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.7	1
11	Nice	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.9	0
12	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.0	0
13	Nantes	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
14	Le Havre	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.9	0
15	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.2	0
16	Metz	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.6	0
17	Brest	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.2	0
18	Lorient	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.