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Bundesliga

Referee: Florian Exner

Hamburg

T S U T T

2–1

Full-time

Heidenheim

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,3

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,0

0,3

Conceded

2,3

Goal diff per game

-2,3

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,35 xG 2,98

49% Possession 51%

22 Shots 20

9 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 7

1 Corners 12

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 10

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hamburg 17. · Heidenheim 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+12	+6.9	9
2	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+5	+4.0	7
3	FC Koln	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.2	7
4	St Pauli	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.8	7
5	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.9	6
6	Hoffenheim	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.3	6
7	Stuttgart	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.5	6
8	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	-3	+0.9	6
9	Wolfsburg	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.3	5
10	Werder Bremen	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.1	4
11	Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.2	4
12	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	+0	-6.1	3
13	Freiburg	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.1	3
14	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.9	3
15	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.6	1
16	M'gladbach	3	0	1	2	-5	+1.1	1
17	Hamburg	3	0	1	2	-7	-3.7	1
18	Heidenheim	3	0	0	3	-6	-5.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+11	+3.1	6
2	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
3	St Pauli	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.9	4
4	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
5	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
6	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.4	3
7	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
8	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
9	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.3	3
10	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
11	Wolfsburg	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.5	2
12	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
13	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-4	+0.1	1
14	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	-3.7	0
15	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
16	Mainz	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
17	Hamburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
18	Heidenheim	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.1	6
2	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.6	4
3	FC Koln	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
4	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.7	3
5	Werder Bremen	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.6	3
6	Augsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.4	3
7	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+3.7	3
8	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.3	3
9	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
10	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	-5	-0.3	3
11	Leverkusen	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
12	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
13	Hamburg	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.7	1
14	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.0	0
15	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
16	Stuttgart	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.4	0
17	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0
18	Union Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.