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Allsvenskan
Referee: J Östling
Malmo FF
U S S S T
5–0
Full-time
Varberg
S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Malmo FF Varberg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,2
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,2
3,7
Scored
2,0
0,8
Conceded
1,2
2,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Allsvenskan · 26/26 matches
Win Ø 39%
65%
12%
Points per game
2,1
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
69%
58%
Both score Ø 44%
46%
42%
Average goals
2,9
2,9
Scored
2,0
0,8
Conceded
0,9
2,1
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,57 xG 0,66
68% Possession 32%
25 Shots 7
11 Shots on target 1
10 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
13 Corners 3
2 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Malmo FF 2. · Varberg 16.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Elfsborg 26 18 3 5 +30 +5.2 57
2 Malmo FF 26 17 4 5 +30 +7.4 55
3 Hacken 26 16 3 7 +27 +7.6 51
4 Djurgarden 27 14 5 8 +7 +3.3 47
5 Kalmar 27 12 6 9 -1 -4.9 42
6 Hammarby 27 11 8 8 +2 +1.5 41
7 Norrkoping 26 11 5 10 +5 +4.2 38
8 Varnamo 26 12 2 12 +1 +0.5 38
9 Sirius 27 10 5 12 +3 +7.9 35
10 Mjallby 27 10 5 12 -3 -2.6 35
11 AIK 26 8 7 11 -3 -0.5 31
12 Halmstad 27 8 7 12 -17 -4.8 31
13 Goteborg 26 7 9 10 -2 -0.9 30
14 Brommapojkarna 27 8 3 16 -14 -4.0 27
15 Degerfors 27 7 3 17 -31 -10.6 24
16 Varberg 26 3 5 18 -34 -9.5 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Malmo FF Varberg
21′
🟨 Oliver Silverholt
1–0 S. Nanasi
35′
Sergio Peña 🟨
43′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 A. Kurochkin
↦ O. Silverholt
Martin Olsson 🟨
54′
1–1 Ó. Sverrisson
own goal
61′
O. Rosengren 🔁
↦ S. Rieks
62′
S. Vecchia 🔁
↦ S. Jørgensen
62′
L. Johnsen 🔁
↦ S. Peña
62′
2–1 O. Rosengren
L. Johnsen
66′
69′
🔁 Filipe Sissé
↦ R. Tranberg
69′
🔁 M. Sainte
↦ M. Borchers
3–1 T. Ali
O. Rosengren
76′
77′
🔁 V. Rönnberg
↦ Vinícius Nogueira
A. Skogmar 🔁
↦ M. Olsson
80′
82′
🔁 A. Marić
↦ V. Karlsson
O. Lewicki 🔁
↦ T. Ali
87′
4–1 S. Vecchia
92′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Malmo FF

3-4-3
30 I. Diawara G
13 M. Olsson D
18 P. Jansson D
19 D. Cornelius D
22 T. Ali M
8 S. Peña M
11 S. Nanasi M
25 Busanello M
14 S. Jørgensen F
9 I. Kiese Thelin F
5 S. Rieks F
Bench (9)
17 O. Rosengren
21 S. Vecchia
23 L. Johnsen
37 A. Skogmar
6 O. Lewicki
7 M. Siby
4 N. Moisander
16 M. Pettersson
3 J. Knudsen

Coach: H. Rydström

Varberg

4-2-3-1
29 F. Andersson G
20 O. Silverholt D
40 N. Dahlström D
3 H. Zackrisson D
38 Ó. Sverrisson D
21 V. Karlsson M
10 I. Lushaku M
17 M. Borchers M
7 R. Tranberg M
5 Vinícius Nogueira M
37 D. Krasniqi F
Bench (9)
9 A. Kurochkin
6 Filipe Sissé
45 M. Sainte
12 V. Rönnberg
16 A. Marić
39 Y. El Ouatki
11 A. Muçolli
19 K. Hoven
1 D. Olsson

Coach: M. Skogman

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

J Östling · 81 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.