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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

CF Os Belenenses

S T S

1–2

Full-time

Gil Vicente

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

CF Os Belenenses Gil Vicente

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

4,2

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paredes	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Montalegre	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	FC Serpa	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	União de Leiria	2	2	0	0	+14	6
5	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	Mafra	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Vilaverdense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Tondela	2	2	0	0	+6	6
9	Maritimo	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Santa Clara	2	2	0	0	+5	6
11	Felgueiras 1932	3	2	0	1	+3	6
12	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
13	Academica	3	2	0	1	+3	6
14	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
16	Torreense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Rebordosa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
18	CD Olivais e Moscavide	3	2	0	1	+1	6
19	Sintrense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
20	Pêro Pinheiro	3	1	2	0	+1	5
21	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+13	4
22	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	1	0	+7	4
23	Canelas 2010	2	1	1	0	+5	4
24	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
25	Penafiel	2	1	1	0	+3	4
26	Tirsense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
27	AD Marco 09	2	1	1	0	+2	4
28	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
29	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
30	Leixoes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
31	O Elvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
32	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
33	Amora	2	1	0	1	+7	3
34	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+5	3
35	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+5	3
36	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
37	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
38	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
39	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
40	Moncarapachense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
41	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
42	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
44	Vila Meã	2	1	0	1	+2	3
45	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
46	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	3
47	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
48	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
49	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
50	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
51	Quarteirense SAD	2	1	0	1	+1	3
52	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	Tocha	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	AVS	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
63	Academico Viseu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
64	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
65	Fabril Barreiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
66	Ribeirão	2	1	0	1	-1	3
67	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
68	Florgrade	2	1	0	1	-2	3
69	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	-2	3
70	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
71	Santa Maria FC	2	1	0	1	-2	3
72	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
73	União Micaelense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
74	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
75	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-3	3
76	Atlético Malveira	2	0	2	0	+0	2
77	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
78	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
86	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
87	Sanjoanense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
88	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
89	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
90	SC Covilha	2	0	1	1	-3	1
91	Os Limianos	2	0	1	1	-4	1
92	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
129	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
131	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
134	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
135	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
136	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
137	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
138	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
139	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
140	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
141	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
142	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0
143	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paredes	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Canelas 2010	2	1	1	0	+5	4
5	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
6	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	O Elvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+13	3
9	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
10	Amora	1	1	0	0	+8	3
11	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+6	3
12	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Moncarapachense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
16	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
17	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
18	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
19	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Florgrade	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	Montalegre	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	União Micaelense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
34	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
35	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	-1	3
36	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
37	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
38	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
39	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
40	Pêro Pinheiro	2	0	2	0	+0	2
41	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Os Limianos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Leixoes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
49	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
50	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Quarteirense SAD	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Academico Viseu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Ribeirão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
83	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
84	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
85	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
86	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
87	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	União de Leiria	2	2	0	0	+14	6
2	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
3	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Montalegre	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Tirsense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	AD Marco 09	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	FC Serpa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+7	3
10	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
12	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
15	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Tocha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Quarteirense SAD	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Ribeirão	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Fabril Barreiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	AVS	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
49	Santa Maria FC	2	1	0	1	-2	3
50	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
51	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Sanjoanense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Paredes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	União Micaelense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
88	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-4	0
89	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
90	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
92	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
93	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
94	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
95	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.