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Allsvenskan
Referee: J Östling
Varberg
U T S T T
2–5
Full-time
Malmo FF
T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Varberg Malmo FF
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
17%
0%
Points per game
0,7
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,3
Scored
1,0
0,7
Conceded
2,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
-1,5
-1,0
This season — Allsvenskan · 28/28 matches
Win Ø 34%
25%
43%
Points per game
1,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
54%
54%
Both score Ø 47%
43%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,4
Scored
0,9
1,3
Conceded
1,8
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,9
+0,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

44% Possession 56%
14 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 8
7 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 3
2 Offside 4
16 Free kicks against 16
3 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Varberg 14. · Malmo FF 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Hacken 29 18 9 2 +32 63
2 Djurgarden 28 16 6 6 +30 54
3 Hammarby 28 14 8 6 +29 50
4 AIK 29 14 8 7 +10 50
5 Kalmar 28 14 6 8 +12 48
6 Elfsborg 28 11 10 7 +16 43
7 Malmo FF 28 12 6 10 +7 42
8 Goteborg 29 13 3 13 +0 42
9 Mjallby 29 10 10 9 -1 40
10 Varnamo 29 9 10 10 -10 37
11 Sirius 29 9 8 12 -10 35
12 Norrkoping 28 8 9 11 -1 33
13 Degerfors 29 7 9 13 -17 30
14 Varberg 28 7 7 14 -24 28
15 Helsingborg 28 4 5 19 -25 17
16 Sundsvall 29 4 2 23 -48 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Varberg Malmo FF
16′
🟨 Sergio Peña
32′
🟨 Moustafa Zeidan
40′
🔁 E. Lomotey
↦ D. Hadžikadunić
44′
O. Toivonen 0–1
F. Beijmo
Half-time 0–1
S. Lukic 🔁
↦ F. Andersson
46′
Jon Birkfeldt 🟨
51′
52′
O. Toivonen 0–2
M. Zeidan
1–2 J. Birkfeldt
A. Johansson
54′
55′
O. Toivonen 1–3
Andre Boman 🟨
60′
64′
S. Rieks 1–4
F. Beijmo
2–4 R. Simović
A. Liljenbäck
73′
O. Alfonsi 🔁
↦ I. Lushaku
74′
F. Bohman 🔁
↦ A. Johansson
74′
Eliton Júnior 🔁
↦ A. Liljenbäck
74′
Filipe Sissé 🔁
↦ R. Tranberg
74′
74′
🔁 E. Rakip
↦ M. Zeidan
77′
🟨 Romain Gall
86′
🟨 Felix Beijmo
87′
🟨 Søren Rieks
88′
Mohamed Turay 2–5
S. Rieks
89′
🔁 J. Knudsen
↦ O. Toivonen
Eliton Junior 🟨
90′
95′
🟨 Erdal Rakip
Full-time 2–5

Line-ups

Varberg

3-4-3
29 F. Andersson G
18 J. Lindner D
20 T. Carlsson D
23 A. Liljenbäck M
2 J. Birkfeldt D
7 R. Tranberg M
8 L. Le Roux M
17 I. Lushaku F
22 A. Boman M
9 R. Simović F
16 A. Johansson F
Bench (7)
42 S. Lukic
14 O. Alfonsi
19 F. Bohman
11 Eliton Júnior
21 Filipe Sissé
4 O. Stanisic
15 G. Mensah

Coach: J. Persson

Malmo FF

4-3-3
27 J. Dahlin G
21 D. Hadžikadunić D
23 M. Chaluš D
14 F. Beijmo D
5 S. Rieks D
8 S. Peña M
18 R. Gall F
20 M. Zeidan M
31 H. Larsson M
11 O. Toivonen F
33 Mohamed Turay F
Bench (6)
40 E. Lomotey
7 E. Rakip
3 J. Knudsen
42 E. Makolli
30 I. Diawara
41 M. Diagne

Coach: Å. Hareide

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U
B ✓
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Östling · 81 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.