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Premier League

Referee: D Coote

Aston Villa

S T S S U

4–1

Full-time

West Ham

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa West Ham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 57%

63%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 76%

63%

88%

Average goals

3,9

3,4

Scored

2,4

1,9

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,94 xG 1,16

58% Possession 42%

15 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 7

2 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 6. · West Ham 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	0	2	+12	+9.7	21
2	Arsenal	9	6	3	0	+10	+8.2	21
3	Liverpool	9	6	2	1	+11	+7.5	20
4	Tottenham	8	6	2	0	+10	+4.0	20
5	Newcastle	9	5	1	3	+15	+10.4	16
6	Aston Villa	8	5	1	2	+7	+2.5	16
7	Brighton	9	5	1	3	+4	+2.6	16
8	Man United	9	5	0	4	-2	+0.2	15
9	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+3	-4.1	14
10	Chelsea	9	3	3	3	+4	+7.3	12
11	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-4	-3.0	12
12	Wolves	9	3	2	4	-4	-3.2	11
13	Fulham	8	3	2	3	-5	-7.0	11
14	Brentford	9	2	4	3	+2	+6.4	10
15	Nott'm Forest	9	2	4	3	-2	-1.8	10
16	Everton	9	2	1	6	-5	+2.4	7
17	Luton	9	1	2	6	-9	-6.4	5
18	Burnley	9	1	1	7	-16	-10.7	4
19	Bournemouth	9	0	3	6	-14	-11.5	3
20	Sheffield United	9	0	1	8	-17	-13.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Newcastle	5	4	0	1	+10	+7.4	12
2	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+9	+7.6	12
3	Man City	4	4	0	0	+8	+1.8	12
4	Arsenal	5	3	2	0	+4	+4.1	11
5	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+5	+1.5	10
6	Aston Villa	3	3	0	0	+11	+4.3	9
7	Tottenham	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.0	9
8	Man United	5	3	0	2	+0	+1.6	9
9	West Ham	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.2	7
10	Brentford	5	1	3	1	+1	+3.2	6
11	Nott'm Forest	4	1	3	0	+1	+1.1	6
12	Fulham	4	2	0	2	-2	-2.6	6
13	Chelsea	5	1	2	2	+1	+4.1	5
14	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.6	5
15	Wolves	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.3	4
16	Everton	5	1	0	4	-1	+4.6	3
17	Bournemouth	5	0	2	3	-7	-6.4	2
18	Luton	4	0	1	3	-3	+1.1	1
19	Sheffield United	5	0	1	4	-11	-8.4	1
20	Burnley	5	0	0	5	-12	-5.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	5	3	2	0	+6	+2.0	11
2	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.1	10
3	Man City	5	3	0	2	+4	+7.9	9
4	Liverpool	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.2	8
5	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.2	7
6	West Ham	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.9	7
7	Wolves	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
8	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	-4	-1.8	7
9	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-4	-2.4	7
10	Brighton	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.0	6
11	Man United	4	2	0	2	-2	-1.4	6
12	Fulham	4	1	2	1	-3	-4.4	5
13	Newcastle	4	1	1	2	+5	+3.0	4
14	Brentford	4	1	1	2	+1	+3.2	4
15	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.9	4
16	Everton	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.2	4
17	Burnley	4	1	1	2	-4	-5.0	4
18	Luton	5	1	1	3	-6	-7.5	4
19	Bournemouth	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.1	1
20	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-6	-5.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.