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Ligue 1

Referee: M Bollengier

Nantes

U S S T S

2–0

Full-time

Montpellier

T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/7 matches

Win Ø 34%

38%

29%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

63%

71%

Both score Ø 66%

75%

57%

Average goals

3,6

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,50 xG 0,53

57% Possession 43%

14 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nantes 9. · Montpellier 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	9	5	4	0	+6	+5.4	19
2	Paris SG	9	5	3	1	+13	+12.3	18
3	Monaco	8	5	2	1	+10	+5.3	17
4	Brest	8	4	3	1	+2	+2.2	15
5	Reims	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.1	13
6	Lille	8	3	3	2	+1	+3.4	12
7	Marseille	9	3	3	3	+0	+7.4	12
8	Rennes	9	2	5	2	+3	+4.6	11
9	Nantes	8	3	2	3	-1	-5.5	11
10	Toulouse	8	2	4	2	+1	-7.3	10
11	Le Havre	9	2	4	3	-2	-5.2	10
12	Lorient	9	2	4	3	-4	-6.7	10
13	Strasbourg	9	3	1	5	-6	-3.0	10
14	Montpellier	7	2	3	2	+3	+2.9	9
15	Lens	9	2	3	4	-5	+0.6	9
16	Metz	8	2	2	4	-7	-7.1	8
17	Lyon	8	0	3	5	-10	-8.4	3
18	Clermont	7	0	2	5	-7	-4.0	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	3	1	1	+8	+4.8	10
2	Marseille	4	3	1	0	+6	+5.1	10
3	Monaco	4	3	0	1	+6	+1.8	9
4	Nice	5	2	3	0	+3	+4.1	9
5	Rennes	5	2	2	1	+4	+5.5	8
6	Brest	4	2	2	0	+2	+5.2	8
7	Lorient	5	2	2	1	+1	-3.6	8
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	+1	+2.0	7
9	Le Havre	5	2	1	2	+1	+1.5	7
10	Lille	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.9	6
11	Reims	4	2	0	2	+1	+4.0	6
12	Toulouse	3	1	2	0	+3	-1.4	5
13	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+1	-3.7	5
14	Lens	4	1	2	1	+0	+3.5	5
15	Metz	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.3	2
16	Montpellier	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.7	2
17	Lyon	4	0	2	2	-6	-3.8	2
18	Clermont	4	0	1	3	-4	-2.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	4	3	1	0	+3	+1.2	10
2	Paris SG	4	2	2	0	+5	+7.5	8
3	Monaco	4	2	2	0	+4	+3.5	8
4	Montpellier	4	2	1	1	+5	+2.1	7
5	Reims	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.9	7
6	Brest	4	2	1	1	+0	-3.0	7
7	Lille	5	1	3	1	-1	+0.5	6
8	Nantes	4	2	0	2	-2	-1.8	6
9	Metz	4	2	0	2	-5	-5.8	6
10	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-2	-5.9	5
11	Lens	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.9	4
12	Rennes	4	0	3	1	-1	-1.0	3
13	Le Havre	4	0	3	1	-3	-6.7	3
14	Strasbourg	4	1	0	3	-7	-5.0	3
15	Lorient	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.1	2
16	Marseille	5	0	2	3	-6	+2.3	2
17	Clermont	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.1	1
18	Lyon	4	0	1	3	-4	-4.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.