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Bundesliga

Referee: T Stieler

Heidenheim

U S T S T

2–5

Full-time

Augsburg

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heidenheim Augsburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,8

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

29%

14%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

57%

86%

Both score Ø 64%

57%

71%

Average goals

3,6

3,9

Scored

1,4

Conceded

2,1

2,4

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–3

1,56 xG 2,51

60% Possession 40%

16 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heidenheim 10. · Augsburg 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	8	7	1	0	+18	+9.8	22
2	Stuttgart	8	7	0	1	+17	+9.2	21
3	Bayern Munich	8	6	2	0	+19	+15.7	20
4	Dortmund	8	6	2	0	+9	+7.0	20
5	RB Leipzig	8	5	2	1	+12	+1.3	17
6	Hoffenheim	8	5	0	3	+3	+0.4	15
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	4	1	+3	-0.3	13
8	Freiburg	8	4	1	3	-5	-0.8	13
9	Wolfsburg	8	4	0	4	+0	+0.3	12
10	Heidenheim	7	2	1	4	-5	-8.7	7
11	Darmstadt	8	2	1	5	-9	-6.1	7
12	M'gladbach	8	1	3	4	-5	-0.8	6
13	Werder Bremen	8	2	0	6	-6	-4.1	6
14	Union Berlin	8	2	0	6	-6	-1.0	6
15	Augsburg	7	1	2	4	-7	-0.8	5
16	FC Koln	8	1	1	6	-8	-4.9	4
17	Bochum	8	0	4	4	-15	-11.2	4
18	Mainz	8	0	2	6	-15	-5.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	+5	+5.7	13
2	Stuttgart	4	4	0	0	+14	+6.8	12
3	Leverkusen	4	4	0	0	+11	+7.3	12
4	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+12	+9.6	10
5	Wolfsburg	4	3	0	1	+4	+1.7	9
6	Freiburg	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.2	9
7	RB Leipzig	4	2	2	0	+7	+0.5	8
8	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.2	8
9	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+2	-2.6	6
10	Werder Bremen	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.3	6
11	Augsburg	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.0	5
12	Darmstadt	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.0	4
13	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.3	3
14	FC Koln	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.0	3
15	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.5	3
16	Bochum	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.2	2
17	M'gladbach	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.6	1
18	Mainz	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	4	4	0	0	+6	+1.8	12
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+7	+6.1	10
3	Leverkusen	4	3	1	0	+7	+2.5	10
4	RB Leipzig	4	3	0	1	+5	+0.8	9
5	Stuttgart	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.5	9
6	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
7	M'gladbach	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.8	5
8	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.5	5
9	Freiburg	4	1	1	2	-7	-2.0	4
10	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-1	+1.5	3
11	Wolfsburg	4	1	0	3	-4	-1.4	3
12	Darmstadt	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.1	3
13	Bochum	5	0	2	3	-13	-11.0	2
14	FC Koln	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.9	1
15	Heidenheim	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.1	1
16	Mainz	4	0	1	3	-8	-3.9	1
17	Werder Bremen	4	0	0	4	-6	-3.8	0
18	Augsburg	3	0	0	3	-7	-1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.