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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Tiago Martins

Moncarapachense

T S

1–3

Full-time

Guimaraes

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moncarapachense Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 2/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

5,5

3,0

Scored

3,0

1,5

Conceded

2,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paredes	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	União de Leiria	2	2	0	0	+14	6
3	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Santa Clara	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Felgueiras 1932	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
8	FC Serpa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Torreense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Rebordosa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	CD Olivais e Moscavide	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Sintrense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
13	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+13	4
14	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	1	0	+7	4
15	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
16	Montalegre	2	1	1	0	+2	4
17	AD Marco 09	2	1	1	0	+2	4
18	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
19	Pêro Pinheiro	2	1	1	0	+1	4
20	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
21	Leixoes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
22	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
23	Amora	2	1	0	1	+7	3
24	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+5	3
25	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+5	3
26	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+5	3
27	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
28	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
29	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
30	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
31	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
32	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
33	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
34	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
35	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
36	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
37	Vila Meã	2	1	0	1	+2	3
38	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	3
41	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
42	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
43	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
44	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
45	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
46	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
47	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Quarteirense SAD	2	1	0	1	+1	3
51	Santa Maria FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
56	AVS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
57	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
58	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
59	Tocha	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
63	Academico Viseu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
64	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
65	Fabril Barreiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
66	Ribeirão	2	1	0	1	-1	3
67	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
68	Florgrade	2	1	0	1	-2	3
69	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
70	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
71	União Micaelense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
72	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
73	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-3	3
74	Atlético Malveira	2	0	2	0	+0	2
75	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
76	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Sanjoanense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
86	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
87	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
88	SC Covilha	2	0	1	1	-3	1
89	Os Limianos	2	0	1	1	-4	1
90	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
126	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
127	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
128	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
129	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
131	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
132	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
133	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
134	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
135	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
136	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
137	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
138	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
139	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0
140	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paredes	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
4	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+13	3
6	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
7	Amora	1	1	0	0	+8	3
8	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+6	3
9	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
13	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Florgrade	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	União Micaelense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	-1	3
29	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
31	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
32	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
33	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Os Limianos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Leixoes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
42	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
43	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Quarteirense SAD	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Academico Viseu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Ribeirão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
76	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
77	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
78	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
79	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
80	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	União de Leiria	2	2	0	0	+14	6
2	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
3	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Montalegre	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	AD Marco 09	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+7	3
8	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
12	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
13	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Tocha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Quarteirense SAD	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Ribeirão	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Santa Maria FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Fabril Barreiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	AVS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
49	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
50	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Sanjoanense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Paredes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	União Micaelense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
82	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-4	0
83	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
84	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
85	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
86	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
87	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
88	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
89	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Moncarapachense Guimaraes

13′

⚽ Tomás Ribeiro 0–1

19′

⚽ Tomás Händel 0–2

25′

⚽ Jota Silva 0–3

1–3 Eduardo Souza ⚽

40′

45′

🟥 Tiago Silva

Half-time 1–3

V. Teixeira 🟨

49′

60′

🔁 Alisson Safira

↦ Adrián Butzke

Jaílson Silva 🔁

↦ Vasco Teixeira

63′

69′

🔁 Dani Silva

↦ João Mendes

E. Souza 🟨

73′

Davi 🟨

76′

S. Ballo 🔁

↦ Diogo Conceição

83′

85′

🔁 Miguel Maga

↦ Ricardo Mangas

85′

🔁 Nuno Santos

↦ Jota Silva

S. Ballo 🟨

86′

K. Kourouma 🔁

↦ Vasco Coelho

87′

Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Moncarapachense

12 Igor Bissoloti

13 Vasco Teixeira

3 Filipe Soares

23 Davi

18 Vasco Coelho

5 Sana Mané

6 Diogo Conceição

10 Eduardo Souza

8 Chris Silva

7 Leo Costa

9 O. James

Bench (9)

11 Jaílson Silva

19 S. Ballo

20 K. Kourouma

1 A. Allagui

2 Ismael Kakuba

4 L. Gomes

14 Ricardo Esteves

16 M. Sadidi

24 Rodrigo Vargas

Coach: José Bizarro

Guimaraes

Charles

Bruno Gaspar

Jorge Fernandes

Ricardo Mangas

Tomás Ribeiro

Tiago Silva

João Mendes

Tomás Händel

Manu

Jota Silva

Adrián Butzke

Bench (9)

Alisson Safira

Dani Silva

Miguel Maga

Nuno Santos

André André

Bruno Varela

Nelson da Luz

T. Borevković

Zé Carlos

Coach: Álvaro Pacheco

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

–

🔒

B ✓

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5 ✓

–

🔒

U3,5

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

24. Sep TP 2 years ago

11. Sep TP 4 years ago

Referee

Tiago Martins · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

5,8 / match

Average

⚽ Free kicks

25,2 / match

Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,47 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Moncarapachense

Guimaraes

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee