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La Liga

Referee: Javier Iglesias Villanueva

Las Palmas

T S T S S

0–1

Full-time

Vallecano

S U U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Las Palmas Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 28%

22%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,6

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,33 xG 1,35

61% Possession 39%

12 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Las Palmas 11. · Vallecano 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	8	1	1	+14	+9.4	25
2	Ath Madrid	9	7	1	1	+15	+7.8	22
3	Girona	9	7	1	1	+8	+3.6	22
4	Barcelona	9	6	3	0	+11	+12.3	21
5	Sociedad	10	5	3	2	+6	-1.1	18
6	Ath Bilbao	9	5	2	2	+7	+7.1	17
7	Betis	10	3	5	2	-2	-3.0	14
8	Vallecano	9	3	4	2	-2	+1.1	13
9	Osasuna	10	4	1	5	-3	-3.1	13
10	Valencia	9	3	2	4	-1	-0.3	11
11	Las Palmas	9	3	2	4	-2	-2.6	11
12	Getafe	10	2	5	3	-3	-4.1	11
13	Sevilla	9	2	3	4	+1	-3.2	9
14	Cadiz	9	2	3	4	-4	-5.4	9
15	Mallorca	10	1	5	4	-4	-3.2	8
16	Villarreal	9	2	2	5	-4	-2.8	8
17	Alaves	9	2	2	5	-6	+0.2	8
18	Celta	10	1	3	6	-8	-1.8	6
19	Granada	10	1	3	6	-10	-10.1	6
20	Almeria	9	0	3	6	-13	-0.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sociedad	6	4	2	0	+7	+0.5	14
2	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+9	+5.3	12
3	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+8	+6.8	12
4	Ath Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	+4.8	12
5	Ath Bilbao	5	3	1	1	+6	+5.7	10
6	Girona	4	3	0	1	+3	+1.3	9
7	Getafe	5	2	3	0	+2	+1.0	9
8	Betis	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.6	8
9	Sevilla	6	2	2	2	+3	+0.0	8
10	Cadiz	5	2	2	1	+2	+3.0	8
11	Las Palmas	4	2	2	0	+2	-0.1	8
12	Alaves	5	2	1	2	-2	+2.0	7
13	Valencia	4	2	0	2	+2	+2.8	6
14	Granada	5	1	2	2	-3	-5.0	5
15	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	-5	-0.6	5
16	Osasuna	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.1	4
17	Mallorca	4	0	3	1	-1	-2.9	3
18	Villarreal	5	1	0	4	-3	-2.3	3
19	Almeria	5	0	2	3	-5	+2.1	2
20	Celta	6	0	2	4	-7	-0.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	6	4	1	1	+6	+2.6	13
2	Girona	5	4	1	0	+5	+2.2	13
3	Ath Madrid	5	3	1	1	+9	+3.0	10
4	Barcelona	5	2	3	0	+2	+7.0	9
5	Osasuna	5	3	0	2	+0	-3.2	9
6	Vallecano	5	2	2	1	+3	+1.7	8
7	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.5	7
8	Betis	6	1	3	2	-6	-5.5	6
9	Villarreal	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.5	5
10	Mallorca	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.4	5
11	Valencia	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.0	5
12	Celta	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.2	4
13	Sociedad	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.6	4
14	Las Palmas	5	1	0	4	-4	-2.6	3
15	Getafe	5	0	2	3	-5	-5.1	2
16	Sevilla	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.2	1
17	Alaves	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.8	1
18	Cadiz	4	0	1	3	-6	-8.5	1
19	Granada	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.1	1
20	Almeria	4	0	1	3	-8	-3.0	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.