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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Villarreal

U T U S T

1–1

Full-time

Alaves

T T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,8

Scored

0,7

0,5

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

22%

Points per game

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

67%

11%

Both score Ø 56%

78%

33%

Average goals

2,9

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,53 xG 1,66

68% Possession 32%

12 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 16. · Alaves 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	8	1	1	+14	+9.4	25
2	Girona	10	8	1	1	+11	+4.5	25
3	Ath Madrid	9	7	1	1	+15	+7.8	22
4	Barcelona	9	6	3	0	+11	+12.3	21
5	Sociedad	10	5	3	2	+6	-1.1	18
6	Ath Bilbao	9	5	2	2	+7	+7.1	17
7	Vallecano	10	4	4	2	-1	+1.1	16
8	Betis	10	3	5	2	-2	-3.0	14
9	Osasuna	10	4	1	5	-3	-3.1	13
10	Valencia	9	3	2	4	-1	-0.3	11
11	Getafe	10	2	5	3	-3	-4.1	11
12	Las Palmas	10	3	2	5	-3	-2.7	11
13	Sevilla	9	2	3	4	+1	-3.2	9
14	Cadiz	9	2	3	4	-4	-5.4	9
15	Mallorca	10	1	5	4	-4	-3.2	8
16	Villarreal	9	2	2	5	-4	-2.8	8
17	Alaves	9	2	2	5	-6	+0.2	8
18	Celta	10	1	3	6	-8	-1.8	6
19	Granada	10	1	3	6	-10	-10.1	6
20	Almeria	10	0	3	7	-16	-1.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sociedad	6	4	2	0	+7	+0.5	14
2	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+9	+5.3	12
3	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+8	+6.8	12
4	Girona	5	4	0	1	+6	+2.2	12
5	Ath Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	+4.8	12
6	Ath Bilbao	5	3	1	1	+6	+5.7	10
7	Getafe	5	2	3	0	+2	+1.0	9
8	Betis	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.6	8
9	Sevilla	6	2	2	2	+3	+0.0	8
10	Cadiz	5	2	2	1	+2	+3.0	8
11	Las Palmas	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.1	8
12	Alaves	5	2	1	2	-2	+2.0	7
13	Valencia	4	2	0	2	+2	+2.8	6
14	Granada	5	1	2	2	-3	-5.0	5
15	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	-5	-0.6	5
16	Osasuna	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.1	4
17	Mallorca	4	0	3	1	-1	-2.9	3
18	Villarreal	5	1	0	4	-3	-2.3	3
19	Almeria	5	0	2	3	-5	+2.1	2
20	Celta	6	0	2	4	-7	-0.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	6	4	1	1	+6	+2.6	13
2	Girona	5	4	1	0	+5	+2.2	13
3	Vallecano	6	3	2	1	+4	+1.7	11
4	Ath Madrid	5	3	1	1	+9	+3.0	10
5	Barcelona	5	2	3	0	+2	+7.0	9
6	Osasuna	5	3	0	2	+0	-3.2	9
7	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.5	7
8	Betis	6	1	3	2	-6	-5.5	6
9	Villarreal	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.5	5
10	Mallorca	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.4	5
11	Valencia	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.0	5
12	Celta	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.2	4
13	Sociedad	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.6	4
14	Las Palmas	5	1	0	4	-4	-2.6	3
15	Getafe	5	0	2	3	-5	-5.1	2
16	Sevilla	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.2	1
17	Alaves	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.8	1
18	Cadiz	4	0	1	3	-6	-8.5	1
19	Granada	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.1	1
20	Almeria	5	0	1	4	-11	-3.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.