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Serie A

Referee: D Doveri

Bologna

U U U S U

2–1

Full-time

Frosinone

S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bologna Frosinone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 32%

25%

38%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

38%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

38%

75%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,52 xG 1,51

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Bologna 12. · Frosinone 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	1	1	+19	+11.6	22
2	Milan	8	7	0	1	+8	+5.2	21
3	Napoli	9	5	2	2	+10	+11.6	17
4	Juventus	8	5	2	1	+8	+6.6	17
5	Fiorentina	8	5	2	1	+7	-1.3	17
6	Roma	9	4	2	3	+8	+6.3	14
7	Atalanta	8	4	1	3	+5	+4.5	13
8	Lazio	9	4	1	4	+0	-0.4	13
9	Frosinone	8	3	3	2	+0	+0.3	12
10	Monza	9	3	3	3	+0	+1.0	12
11	Lecce	8	3	3	2	-1	-4.6	12
12	Bologna	8	2	5	1	+2	+2.1	11
13	Sassuolo	9	3	1	5	-4	-6.1	10
14	Torino	9	2	3	4	-6	-4.7	9
15	Genoa	8	2	2	4	-2	-3.3	8
16	Verona	9	2	2	5	-5	-5.6	8
17	Udinese	8	0	5	3	-8	-2.4	5
18	Empoli	8	1	1	6	-15	-5.1	4
19	Salernitana	8	0	3	5	-13	-10.3	3
20	Cagliari	8	0	2	6	-13	-5.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	5	3	1	1	+9	+6.1	10
2	Roma	5	3	1	1	+9	+3.9	10
3	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.9	10
4	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.2	10
5	Lecce	5	3	1	1	+0	-0.8	10
6	Milan	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.6	9
7	Monza	4	2	2	0	+5	+4.9	8
8	Atalanta	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.0	7
9	Fiorentina	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.9	7
10	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.9	7
11	Bologna	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.8	7
12	Napoli	4	2	0	2	+2	+6.3	6
13	Sassuolo	5	2	0	3	-1	-1.2	6
14	Torino	5	1	3	1	-2	-1.4	6
15	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.0	4
16	Verona	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.8	4
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.4	4
18	Udinese	4	0	2	2	-5	+1.3	2
19	Salernitana	4	0	2	2	-7	-2.8	2
20	Cagliari	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.5	12
2	Milan	5	4	0	1	+2	+0.6	12
3	Napoli	5	3	2	0	+8	+5.3	11
4	Fiorentina	5	3	1	1	+3	-3.2	10
5	Juventus	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
6	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.6	6
7	Lazio	5	2	0	3	-2	-2.3	6
8	Bologna	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.3	4
9	Roma	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.4	4
10	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.3	4
11	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-3	-4.9	4
12	Verona	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.8	4
13	Monza	5	1	1	3	-5	-3.8	4
14	Udinese	4	0	3	1	-3	-3.7	3
15	Torino	4	1	0	3	-4	-3.3	3
16	Lecce	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.8	2
17	Frosinone	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.1	2
18	Salernitana	4	0	1	3	-6	-7.5	1
19	Cagliari	4	0	1	3	-6	-3.8	1
20	Empoli	3	0	0	3	-12	-4.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.