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Championship

Referee: D Whitestone

Birmingham

T U S T T

1–3

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

1,0

2,3

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,2

This season — Championship · 25/24 matches

Win Ø 37%

32%

42%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

40%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

44%

71%

Average goals

2,1

2,9

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

39% Possession 61%

9 Shots 18

1 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 8

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

9 Corners 8

3 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 16. · Middlesbrough 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	25	15	8	2	+26	53
2	Sheffield United	25	15	5	5	+21	50
3	Blackburn	26	14	0	12	+0	42
4	Millwall	25	11	6	8	+6	39
5	Luton	24	10	8	6	+5	38
6	Sunderland	25	10	7	8	+9	37
7	Watford	25	10	7	8	+2	37
8	Middlesbrough	24	10	6	8	+7	36
9	Norwich	25	10	6	9	+4	36
10	Reading	25	11	3	11	-6	36
11	West Brom	25	9	8	8	+7	35
12	Swansea	25	9	8	8	+1	35
13	QPR	25	10	5	10	-3	35
14	Preston	25	9	7	9	-3	34
15	Coventry	24	8	8	8	+0	32
16	Birmingham	25	8	8	9	+0	32
17	Stoke	25	8	6	11	-5	30
18	Hull	25	8	6	11	-13	30
19	Bristol City	26	7	8	11	-3	29
20	Cardiff	26	7	7	12	-9	28
21	Rotherham	26	6	9	11	-11	27
22	Blackpool	26	6	8	12	-10	26
23	Huddersfield	25	7	4	14	-8	25
24	Wigan	25	6	6	13	-17	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	13	9	4	0	+18	31
2	Millwall	13	8	3	2	+12	27
3	Blackburn	13	9	0	4	+7	27
4	Reading	12	8	1	3	+6	25
5	Sheffield United	12	7	3	2	+14	24
6	Swansea	12	6	2	4	+5	20
7	Watford	12	6	2	4	+5	20
8	Middlesbrough	12	5	5	2	+5	20
9	West Brom	13	5	4	4	+5	19
10	Norwich	13	5	4	4	+4	19
11	Coventry	12	5	4	3	+4	19
12	Birmingham	13	4	5	4	+3	17
13	QPR	12	5	2	5	-1	17
14	Huddersfield	14	5	2	7	-1	17
15	Rotherham	12	4	4	4	+3	16
16	Sunderland	12	4	4	4	+3	16
17	Cardiff	13	4	4	5	-1	16
18	Luton	11	3	6	2	+3	15
19	Bristol City	13	4	3	6	+0	15
20	Hull	13	4	2	7	-9	14
21	Preston	13	3	4	6	-6	13
22	Stoke	12	3	3	6	-4	12
23	Blackpool	13	3	3	7	-5	12
24	Wigan	13	2	3	8	-14	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	13	8	2	3	+7	26
2	Luton	13	7	2	4	+2	23
3	Burnley	12	6	4	2	+8	22
4	Sunderland	13	6	3	4	+6	21
5	Preston	12	6	3	3	+3	21
6	Stoke	13	5	3	5	-1	18
7	QPR	13	5	3	5	-2	18
8	Norwich	12	5	2	5	+0	17
9	Watford	13	4	5	4	-3	17
10	Middlesbrough	12	5	1	6	+2	16
11	West Brom	12	4	4	4	+2	16
12	Hull	12	4	4	4	-4	16
13	Wigan	12	4	3	5	-3	15
14	Birmingham	12	4	3	5	-3	15
15	Swansea	13	3	6	4	-4	15
16	Blackburn	13	5	0	8	-7	15
17	Bristol City	13	3	5	5	-3	14
18	Blackpool	13	3	5	5	-5	14
19	Coventry	12	3	4	5	-4	13
20	Millwall	12	3	3	6	-6	12
21	Cardiff	13	3	3	7	-8	12
22	Reading	13	3	2	8	-12	11
23	Rotherham	14	2	5	7	-14	11
24	Huddersfield	11	2	2	7	-7	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.