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Championship

Referee: D England

Middlesbrough

S S S T S

0–1

Full-time

Birmingham

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,0

0,5

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,8

This season — Championship · 22/23 matches

Win Ø 34%

45%

22%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

41%

39%

Both score Ø 45%

41%

48%

Average goals

2,1

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

48% Possession 52%

8 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

3 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 7. · Birmingham 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	23	14	5	4	+11	47
2	Bournemouth	22	11	9	2	+20	42
3	Reading	23	12	4	7	+6	40
4	Swansea	21	11	6	4	+12	39
5	Brentford	20	10	7	3	+14	37
6	Watford	22	10	7	5	+8	37
7	Middlesbrough	22	10	6	6	+10	36
8	Stoke	23	9	8	6	+4	35
9	Barnsley	22	10	4	8	+0	34
10	Bristol City	22	10	3	9	-1	33
11	Blackburn	23	9	5	9	+11	32
12	Preston	23	10	2	11	-1	32
13	Huddersfield	23	9	4	10	-4	31
14	Luton	23	8	6	9	-6	30
15	Cardiff	22	8	5	9	+4	29
16	Millwall	22	5	11	6	-2	26
17	Coventry	23	6	8	9	-9	26
18	Sheffield Weds	23	6	7	10	-8	25
19	QPR	23	5	9	9	-8	24
20	Birmingham	23	5	8	10	-12	23
21	Nott'm Forest	23	5	7	11	-10	22
22	Derby	22	4	7	11	-10	19
23	Rotherham	20	4	4	12	-10	16
24	Wycombe	23	3	6	14	-19	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	11	8	2	1	+11	26
2	Norwich	12	7	4	1	+7	25
3	Bournemouth	11	7	3	1	+12	24
4	Middlesbrough	10	7	2	1	+11	23
5	Swansea	11	6	4	1	+8	22
6	Huddersfield	12	7	1	4	+6	22
7	Reading	11	7	0	4	+4	21
8	Barnsley	11	6	2	3	+3	20
9	Luton	12	5	4	3	+2	19
10	Blackburn	11	5	3	3	+6	18
11	Stoke	12	5	3	4	+0	18
12	Sheffield Weds	12	4	5	3	+1	17
13	Bristol City	11	5	2	4	+0	17
14	Coventry	11	4	5	2	-1	17
15	Brentford	9	4	4	1	+6	16
16	Cardiff	11	4	2	5	+4	14
17	Nott'm Forest	11	3	4	4	-1	13
18	QPR	11	3	4	4	-2	13
19	Preston	12	4	1	7	-3	13
20	Rotherham	10	3	2	5	+0	11
21	Millwall	11	1	7	3	-3	10
22	Wycombe	12	2	4	6	-6	10
23	Birmingham	12	2	2	8	-13	8
24	Derby	11	1	4	6	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	11	7	1	3	+4	22
2	Brentford	11	6	3	2	+8	21
3	Preston	11	6	1	4	+2	19
4	Reading	12	5	4	3	+2	19
5	Bournemouth	11	4	6	1	+8	18
6	Swansea	10	5	2	3	+4	17
7	Stoke	11	4	5	2	+4	17
8	Millwall	11	4	4	3	+1	16
9	Bristol City	11	5	1	5	-1	16
10	Birmingham	11	3	6	2	+1	15
11	Cardiff	11	4	3	4	+0	15
12	Blackburn	12	4	2	6	+5	14
13	Barnsley	11	4	2	5	-3	14
14	Middlesbrough	12	3	4	5	-1	13
15	Derby	11	3	3	5	-1	12
16	Watford	11	2	5	4	-3	11
17	QPR	12	2	5	5	-6	11
18	Luton	11	3	2	6	-8	11
19	Coventry	12	2	3	7	-8	9
20	Nott'm Forest	12	2	3	7	-9	9
21	Huddersfield	11	2	3	6	-10	9
22	Sheffield Weds	11	2	2	7	-9	8
23	Rotherham	10	1	2	7	-10	5
24	Wycombe	11	1	2	8	-13	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.