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Serie B

Referee: Federico La Penna

Monza

U S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Spezia

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

This season — Serie B · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 35%

60%

10%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 55%

50%

60%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

69% Possession 31%

16 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 3. · Spezia 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Modena	11	7	3	1	+13	+0.4	24
2	Frosinone	11	6	3	2	+11	+2.6	21
3	Monza	10	6	2	2	+7	+1.2	20
4	Cesena	11	6	2	3	+3	+0.8	20
5	Palermo	11	5	4	2	+7	-1.2	19
6	Venezia	11	4	4	3	+6	–	16
7	Avellino	11	4	4	3	-3	+0.2	16
8	Catanzaro	11	3	6	2	+2	–	15
9	Reggiana	11	4	3	4	+0	-0.4	15
10	Carrarese	11	3	5	3	+2	-0.8	14
11	Juve Stabia	10	3	5	2	-1	–	14
12	Padova	11	3	5	3	-1	–	14
13	Virtus Entella	11	3	4	4	-5	-2.6	13
14	Bari	10	3	3	4	-5	–	12
15	Sudtirol	11	2	5	4	-3	–	11
16	Empoli	11	2	5	4	-5	-0.7	11
17	Pescara	11	1	5	5	-8	-0.2	8
18	Spezia	10	1	4	5	-4	–	7
19	Sampdoria	10	1	4	5	-5	+0.7	7
20	Mantova	10	1	2	7	-11	–	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Modena	6	5	1	0	+10	–	16
2	Venezia	5	4	0	1	+8	–	12
3	Palermo	7	3	3	1	+5	-1.2	12
4	Virtus Entella	6	3	3	0	+4	–	12
5	Monza	5	4	0	1	+4	–	12
6	Reggiana	5	3	2	0	+5	-0.4	11
7	Bari	5	3	2	0	+3	–	11
8	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	+7	+2.6	10
9	Avellino	5	3	1	1	+0	–	10
10	Catanzaro	6	2	3	1	+1	–	9
11	Juve Stabia	4	2	2	0	+3	–	8
12	Empoli	6	1	5	0	+2	-0.7	8
13	Carrarese	6	2	2	2	+1	–	8
14	Pescara	6	1	4	1	+2	-0.2	7
15	Sudtirol	5	2	0	3	+0	–	6
16	Padova	5	1	3	1	+0	–	6
17	Sampdoria	5	1	2	2	+0	–	5
18	Cesena	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.8	5
19	Mantova	5	1	1	3	-7	–	4
20	Spezia	6	0	2	4	-6	–	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cesena	7	5	0	2	+3	–	15
2	Frosinone	6	3	2	1	+4	–	11
3	Monza	5	2	2	1	+3	+1.2	8
4	Modena	5	2	2	1	+3	+0.4	8
5	Padova	6	2	2	2	-1	–	8
6	Palermo	4	2	1	1	+2	–	7
7	Carrarese	5	1	3	1	+1	-0.8	6
8	Catanzaro	5	1	3	1	+1	–	6
9	Avellino	6	1	3	2	-3	+0.2	6
10	Juve Stabia	6	1	3	2	-4	–	6
11	Spezia	4	1	2	1	+2	–	5
12	Sudtirol	6	0	5	1	-3	–	5
13	Venezia	6	0	4	2	-2	–	4
14	Reggiana	6	1	1	4	-5	–	4
15	Empoli	5	1	0	4	-7	–	3
16	Sampdoria	5	0	2	3	-5	+0.7	2
17	Mantova	5	0	1	4	-4	–	1
18	Bari	5	0	1	4	-8	–	1
19	Virtus Entella	5	0	1	4	-9	-2.6	1
20	Pescara	5	0	1	4	-10	–	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.