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Serie A

Referee: A Rapuano

Spezia

T U U T U

0–2

Full-time

Monza

U T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Monza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 30/31 matches

Win Ø 26%

17%

35%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

50%

48%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

48%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,66 xG 0,94

45% Possession 55%

12 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 17. · Monza 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	31	25	3	3	+46	+9.1	78
2	Lazio	31	18	7	6	+28	+3.0	61
3	Juventus	31	18	5	8	+21	+5.9	59
4	Milan	31	16	8	7	+14	+3.4	56
5	Roma	31	17	5	9	+14	+6.2	56
6	Inter	31	17	3	11	+17	+14.6	54
7	Atalanta	31	15	7	9	+15	+2.9	52
8	Bologna	31	12	8	11	+1	-2.3	44
9	Udinese	32	10	12	10	+2	-2.8	42
10	Fiorentina	31	11	9	11	+1	+4.3	42
11	Torino	31	11	9	11	-4	+1.4	42
12	Monza	31	11	8	12	-5	-2.0	41
13	Sassuolo	31	11	7	13	-8	+2.8	40
14	Salernitana	31	7	12	12	-13	-8.6	33
15	Empoli	31	7	11	13	-15	-6.8	32
16	Lecce	32	7	10	15	-11	+0.8	31
17	Spezia	30	5	11	14	-23	-8.0	26
18	Verona	30	6	7	17	-18	-4.4	25
19	Cremonese	31	3	10	18	-30	-8.9	19
20	Sampdoria	31	3	8	20	-32	-10.5	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	16	11	3	2	+21	+4.3	36
2	Napoli	15	11	2	2	+20	+2.6	35
3	Inter	16	11	0	5	+18	+7.2	33
4	Milan	15	10	3	2	+13	+4.5	33
5	Roma	15	10	1	4	+14	+1.8	31
6	Lazio	16	9	3	4	+11	+0.3	30
7	Bologna	16	7	6	3	+10	+0.2	27
8	Atalanta	15	7	3	5	+8	+5.3	24
9	Sassuolo	15	7	3	5	+3	+0.2	24
10	Fiorentina	16	6	6	4	+0	+5.9	24
11	Udinese	15	5	8	2	+10	+3.8	23
12	Monza	16	6	4	6	+2	+1.3	22
13	Salernitana	16	5	5	6	+2	-4.7	20
14	Torino	15	5	5	5	-2	+2.4	20
15	Verona	16	6	2	8	-5	-1.7	20
16	Empoli	15	5	4	6	-5	-1.4	19
17	Lecce	16	3	7	6	-4	+2.7	16
18	Spezia	15	3	7	5	-8	-6.4	16
19	Cremonese	15	2	3	10	-16	-3.8	9
20	Sampdoria	16	1	5	10	-14	-0.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	16	14	1	1	+26	+6.5	43
2	Lazio	15	9	4	2	+17	+2.7	31
3	Atalanta	16	8	4	4	+7	-2.4	28
4	Roma	16	7	4	5	+0	+4.4	25
5	Milan	16	6	5	5	+1	-1.1	23
6	Juventus	15	7	2	6	+0	+1.7	23
7	Torino	16	6	4	6	-2	-1.0	22
8	Inter	15	6	3	6	-1	+7.4	21
9	Monza	15	5	4	6	-7	-3.4	19
10	Udinese	17	5	4	8	-8	-6.6	19
11	Fiorentina	15	5	3	7	+1	-1.6	18
12	Bologna	15	5	2	8	-9	-2.5	17
13	Sassuolo	16	4	4	8	-11	+2.5	16
14	Lecce	16	4	3	9	-7	-1.8	15
15	Empoli	16	2	7	7	-10	-5.3	13
16	Salernitana	15	2	7	6	-15	-3.9	13
17	Cremonese	16	1	7	8	-14	-5.1	10
18	Spezia	15	2	4	9	-15	-1.7	10
19	Sampdoria	15	2	3	10	-18	-9.9	9
20	Verona	14	0	5	9	-13	-2.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.