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Serie A

Referee: D Perenzoni

Monza

T T U S S

2–0

Full-time

Spezia

T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,0

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

63%

Both score Ø 38%

38%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,8

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

7 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

3 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 17. · Spezia 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	8	6	2	0	+12	20
2	Milan	9	6	2	1	+9	20
3	Atalanta	8	6	2	0	+9	20
4	Udinese	8	6	1	1	+9	19
5	Lazio	8	5	2	1	+12	17
6	Roma	8	5	1	2	+2	16
7	Inter	9	5	0	4	+2	15
8	Juventus	9	3	4	2	+5	13
9	Sassuolo	9	3	3	3	+1	12
10	Torino	9	3	2	4	-3	11
11	Fiorentina	8	2	3	3	+0	9
12	Empoli	9	1	5	3	-3	8
13	Spezia	8	2	2	4	-8	8
14	Lecce	8	1	4	3	-2	7
15	Salernitana	8	1	4	3	-3	7
16	Bologna	9	1	4	4	-6	7
17	Monza	8	2	1	5	-7	7
18	Verona	8	1	2	5	-8	5
19	Cremonese	8	0	3	5	-9	3
20	Sampdoria	9	0	3	6	-12	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	5	4	0	1	+8	12
2	Milan	5	4	0	1	+6	12
3	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+8	11
4	Napoli	4	3	1	0	+7	10
5	Udinese	4	3	1	0	+7	10
6	Inter	4	3	0	1	+5	9
7	Fiorentina	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Atalanta	4	2	2	0	+3	8
9	Spezia	4	2	2	0	+2	8
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	+3	7
11	Roma	3	2	0	1	+3	6
12	Bologna	5	1	3	1	+0	6
13	Torino	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Salernitana	4	1	1	2	+2	4
15	Lecce	4	0	3	1	-1	3
16	Monza	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Verona	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Empoli	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Sampdoria	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Cremonese	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Napoli	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Roma	5	3	1	1	-1	10
4	Udinese	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Milan	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Empoli	5	1	3	1	+0	6
7	Inter	5	2	0	3	-3	6
8	Torino	5	2	0	3	-3	6
9	Lazio	3	1	2	0	+4	5
10	Sassuolo	4	1	2	1	-2	5
11	Lecce	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Monza	4	1	1	2	-4	4
13	Salernitana	4	0	3	1	-5	3
14	Juventus	4	0	2	2	-3	2
15	Cremonese	5	0	2	3	-4	2
16	Verona	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Fiorentina	4	0	1	3	-3	1
18	Bologna	4	0	1	3	-6	1
19	Sampdoria	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	Spezia	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.