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Serie A

Referee: Marco Guida

Milan

S U S U U

1–0

Full-time

Roma

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 67%

56%

78%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

56%

22%

Both score Ø 39%

56%

22%

Average goals

2,3

1,6

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

0,8

0,4

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,32 xG 1,95

37% Possession 63%

17 Shots 20

8 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 4

7 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 8

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 5. · Roma 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	7	1	2	+8	+3.8	22
2	Inter	10	7	0	3	+12	+10.8	21
3	Roma	9	7	0	2	+6	+2.8	21
4	Bologna	10	5	3	2	+8	+2.6	18
5	Milan	9	5	3	1	+7	+3.6	18
6	Juventus	10	5	3	2	+4	+5.4	18
7	Como	10	4	5	1	+6	+2.4	17
8	Udinese	10	4	3	3	-3	-1.8	15
9	Cremonese	10	3	5	2	+0	-6.4	14
10	Atalanta	10	2	7	1	+5	+5.5	13
11	Sassuolo	9	4	1	4	+0	-3.8	13
12	Torino	10	3	4	3	-6	-3.6	13
13	Lazio	9	3	3	3	+4	-2.4	12
14	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-3	-7.1	9
15	Lecce	10	2	3	5	-6	-4.6	9
16	Parma	10	1	4	5	-7	-3.7	7
17	Pisa	10	0	6	4	-7	-4.1	6
18	Verona	10	0	5	5	-10	+0.2	5
19	Fiorentina	10	0	4	6	-9	-1.3	4
20	Genoa	9	0	3	6	-9	+1.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	5	4	1	0	+5	-0.5	13
2	Inter	5	4	0	1	+11	+7.2	12
3	Como	5	3	2	0	+6	+2.0	11
4	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+5	+4.3	11
5	Bologna	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.9	10
6	Milan	5	3	1	1	+2	+1.4	10
7	Roma	5	3	0	2	+2	+1.6	9
8	Udinese	5	2	2	1	-1	+1.6	8
9	Torino	5	2	2	1	-1	-2.4	8
10	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+4	+2.0	7
11	Atalanta	5	1	4	0	+3	+5.9	7
12	Cremonese	5	1	3	1	+0	+0.3	6
13	Sassuolo	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.2	6
14	Parma	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.5	5
15	Cagliari	5	1	1	3	-3	-4.0	4
16	Verona	5	0	3	2	-2	+2.3	3
17	Pisa	5	0	3	2	-2	-1.2	3
18	Lecce	5	0	2	3	-4	-1.7	2
19	Genoa	5	0	2	3	-6	+2.3	2
20	Fiorentina	5	0	1	4	-5	+0.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	4	4	0	0	+4	+1.3	12
2	Napoli	5	3	0	2	+3	+4.4	9
3	Inter	5	3	0	2	+1	+3.6	9
4	Milan	4	2	2	0	+5	+2.3	8
5	Bologna	6	2	2	2	+2	-2.3	8
6	Cremonese	5	2	2	1	+0	-6.6	8
7	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	+0	-2.6	7
8	Juventus	5	2	1	2	-1	+1.0	7
9	Udinese	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.4	7
10	Lecce	5	2	1	2	-2	-2.8	7
11	Atalanta	5	1	3	1	+2	-0.4	6
12	Como	5	1	3	1	+0	+0.4	6
13	Cagliari	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.1	5
14	Lazio	5	1	2	2	+0	-4.4	5
15	Torino	5	1	2	2	-5	-1.2	5
16	Fiorentina	5	0	3	2	-4	-2.2	3
17	Pisa	5	0	3	2	-5	-2.8	3
18	Parma	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.1	2
19	Verona	5	0	2	3	-8	-2.0	2
20	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-3	-0.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.