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Eredivisie
Referee: Danny Makkelie
0–1
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sparta Rotterdam AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
4,2
3,0
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
2,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 55%
50%
60%
Points per game
1,6
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
70%
80%
Both score Ø 60%
40%
80%
Average goals
3,6
3,6
Scored
1,4
2,3
Conceded
2,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,56 xG 2,62
42% Possession 58%
10 Shots 20
3 Shots on target 14
4 Blocked shots 3
13 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 9
2 Offside 2
7 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sparta Rotterdam 6. · AZ Alkmaar 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Feyenoord 11 9 1 1 +20 +17.4 28
2 PSV Eindhoven 11 9 1 1 +19 +11.3 28
3 AZ Alkmaar 10 6 3 1 +10 +10.3 21
4 Ajax 11 5 5 1 +6 +2.6 20
5 Groningen 10 6 0 4 +2 +1.6 18
6 Sparta Rotterdam 10 5 1 4 -8 -3.3 16
7 Nijmegen 10 4 3 3 +8 +4.6 15
8 Twente 10 4 2 4 +2 +10.6 14
9 Go Ahead Eagles 11 3 4 4 +0 -2.7 13
10 Heerenveen 10 3 4 3 +0 +8.5 13
11 For Sittard 11 4 1 6 -4 -6.6 13
12 Utrecht 9 4 0 5 +4 -2.1 12
13 NAC Breda 11 3 3 5 -5 -6.3 12
14 Volendam 11 2 4 5 -5 -10.1 10
15 Excelsior 11 3 1 7 -11 -8.3 10
16 Zwolle 11 2 3 6 -14 -10.4 9
17 Telstar 11 2 2 7 -7 -5.7 8
18 Heracles 11 2 0 9 -17 -11.4 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sparta Rotterdam AZ Alkmaar
Half-time 0–0
J. Kitolano 🔁
↦ J. Toornstra
46′
69′
K. Smit 0–1
I. Jensen
A. Santos 🔁
↦ P. Clement
73′
Tobias Lauritsen 🟨
79′
79′
🟨 Wouter Goes
80′
🔁 D. Kwakman
↦ K. Smit
80′
🔁 I. Sadiq
↦ Weslley Patati
81′
🔁 L. Zeefuik
↦ T. Parrott
J. de Guzman 🔁
↦ A. Oufkir
84′
N. Thorisson 🔁
↦ T. Quintero
84′
J. Seedorf 🔁
↦ M. van Bergen
89′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Sparta Rotterdam

4-2-3-1
1 J. Drommel G
2 S. Sambo D
3 M. Young D
4 B. Martins Indi D
5 T. Quintero D
8 J. Toornstra M
6 P. Clement M
7 M. van Bergen M
10 L. Duijvestijn M
11 A. Oufkir M
9 T. Lauritsen F
Bench (12)
20 F. Bednarek
18 J. Kitolano
13 M. Kleijn
30 P. Kuiper
12 S. Bakari
17 S. Ltaief
22 A. Santos
21 J. Seedorf
14 T. Velthuis
16 J. de Guzman
15 P. van Aanholt
19 N. Thorisson

Coach: Maurice Steijn

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
1 R. Owusu-Oduro G
30 D. Kasius D
3 W. Goes D
5 Penetra D
34 M. de Wit D
6 P. Koopmeiners M
10 S. Mijnans M
26 K. Smit M
7 Weslley Patati F
9 T. Parrott F
17 I. Jensen F
Bench (10)
15 M. Chavez Garcia
27 R. Daal
4 M. Dekker
22 E. Dijkstra
21 D. Kwakman
14 A. Natali
11 I. Sadiq
12 H. Verhulst
25 L. Zeefuik
41 J. Zoet

Coach: Maarten Martens

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,94
U
4,02
B ✓
1,75
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,50
U2,5 ✓
2,43
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Danny Makkelie · 15 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,40 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.