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Ligue 1
Referee: Thomas Leonard
Rennes
U U U T U
4–1
Full-time
Strasbourg
S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rennes Strasbourg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,7
Scored
1,5
2,5
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 40%
20%
60%
Points per game
1,2
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
70%
70%
Both score Ø 60%
70%
50%
Average goals
3,0
3,3
Scored
1,4
2,1
Conceded
1,6
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,35 xG 1,60
41% Possession 59%
13 Shots 20
6 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 8
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 5
2 Offside 3
15 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Rennes 11. · Strasbourg 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 11 7 3 1 +12 +8.7 24
2 Marseille 11 7 1 3 +14 +7.7 22
3 Monaco 11 6 2 3 +6 +7.6 20
4 Strasbourg 10 6 1 3 +9 +8.5 19
5 Lyon 10 6 1 3 +4 +8.3 19
6 Lens 10 6 1 3 +4 +2.5 19
7 Lille 10 5 2 3 +9 +6.1 17
8 Nice 11 5 2 4 +0 -7.6 17
9 Toulouse 10 4 2 4 +2 +0.6 14
10 Paris FC 11 4 2 5 -2 -2.5 14
11 Rennes 10 2 6 2 -2 -2.1 12
12 Le Havre 10 3 3 4 -4 -0.4 12
13 Angers 10 2 4 4 -6 -8.8 10
14 Brest 10 2 3 5 -4 -0.2 9
15 Nantes 10 2 3 5 -5 -10.2 9
16 Lorient 10 2 3 5 -9 -2.1 9
17 Auxerre 11 2 1 8 -10 -6.1 7
18 Metz 10 1 2 7 -18 -10.1 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Rennes Strasbourg
1–0 E. Lepaul
M. Tamari
9′
2–0 M. Meite
A. Ait Boudlal
35′
Half-time 3–0
3–0 E. Lepaul
M. Meite
48′
52′
🔁 S. Nanasi
↦ S. Amo-Ameyaw
52′
🔁 M. Amougou
↦ S. El Mourabet
Q. Merlin 🔁
↦ M. Tamari
59′
4–0 E. Lepaul
V. Rongier
60′
61′
🔁 R. Nzingoula
↦ A. Ouattara
L. Blas 🔁
↦ D. Cisse
68′
B. Embolo 🔁
↦ M. Meite
68′
77′
S. Nanasi 4–1
V. Barco
83′
🟨 Ben Chilwell
83′
🔁 K. Paez
↦ J. Enciso
83′
🔁 M. Godo
↦ D. Moreira
L. Rosier 🔁
↦ E. Lepaul
93′
Przemysław Frankowski 🟨
94′
Full-time 4–1

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,30
U
3,56
B
2,86
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,66
U2,5
2,16
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Thomas Leonard · 29 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.