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Serie B

Referee: Ivano Pezzuto

Spezia

T U T T S

1–1

Full-time

Padova

S U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Padova

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

This season — Serie B · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

11%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

56%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

9 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 19. · Padova 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Modena	10	6	3	1	+10	+0.4	21
2	Monza	10	6	2	2	+7	+1.2	20
3	Cesena	10	6	2	2	+4	+0.8	20
4	Frosinone	10	5	3	2	+9	+2.6	18
5	Palermo	10	4	4	2	+2	-1.2	16
6	Reggiana	10	4	3	3	+1	-0.4	15
7	Carrarese	10	3	5	2	+4	-0.8	14
8	Juve Stabia	9	3	5	1	+2	–	14
9	Venezia	9	3	4	2	+4	–	13
10	Avellino	10	3	4	3	-4	+0.2	13
11	Padova	9	3	3	3	-1	–	12
12	Empoli	10	2	5	3	-4	-0.7	11
13	Sudtirol	9	2	4	3	+0	–	10
14	Virtus Entella	10	2	4	4	-6	-2.6	10
15	Catanzaro	9	1	6	2	-1	–	9
16	Bari	9	2	3	4	-6	–	9
17	Pescara	10	1	5	4	-3	-0.2	8
18	Sampdoria	10	1	4	5	-5	+0.7	7
19	Spezia	9	1	3	5	-4	–	6
20	Mantova	9	1	2	6	-9	–	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Modena	5	4	1	0	+7	–	13
2	Monza	5	4	0	1	+4	–	12
3	Reggiana	5	3	2	0	+5	-0.4	11
4	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	+7	+2.6	10
5	Venezia	4	3	0	1	+5	–	9
6	Virtus Entella	5	2	3	0	+3	–	9
7	Palermo	6	2	3	1	+0	-1.2	9
8	Carrarese	5	2	2	1	+3	–	8
9	Juve Stabia	4	2	2	0	+3	–	8
10	Empoli	6	1	5	0	+2	-0.7	8
11	Bari	4	2	2	0	+2	–	8
12	Pescara	6	1	4	1	+2	-0.2	7
13	Avellino	4	2	1	1	-1	–	7
14	Sudtirol	5	2	0	3	+0	–	6
15	Catanzaro	5	1	3	1	+0	–	6
16	Sampdoria	5	1	2	2	+0	–	5
17	Padova	4	1	2	1	+0	–	5
18	Cesena	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.8	5
19	Mantova	4	1	1	2	-5	–	4
20	Spezia	5	0	1	4	-6	–	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cesena	6	5	0	1	+4	–	15
2	Monza	5	2	2	1	+3	+1.2	8
3	Modena	5	2	2	1	+3	+0.4	8
4	Frosinone	5	2	2	1	+2	–	8
5	Palermo	4	2	1	1	+2	–	7
6	Padova	5	2	1	2	-1	–	7
7	Carrarese	5	1	3	1	+1	-0.8	6
8	Juve Stabia	5	1	3	1	-1	–	6
9	Avellino	6	1	3	2	-3	+0.2	6
10	Spezia	4	1	2	1	+2	–	5
11	Sudtirol	4	0	4	0	+0	–	4
12	Venezia	5	0	4	1	-1	–	4
13	Reggiana	5	1	1	3	-4	–	4
14	Catanzaro	4	0	3	1	-1	–	3
15	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-6	–	3
16	Sampdoria	5	0	2	3	-5	+0.7	2
17	Mantova	5	0	1	4	-4	–	1
18	Pescara	4	0	1	3	-5	–	1
19	Bari	5	0	1	4	-8	–	1
20	Virtus Entella	5	0	1	4	-9	-2.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.