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Ligue 1

Referee: Jeremy Stinat

Toulouse

U S S T U

0–0

Full-time

Le Havre

U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Le Havre

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 35%

40%

30%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

60%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

50%

60%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,12 xG 1,30

46% Possession 54%

18 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 10. · Le Havre 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	7	3	1	+12	+8.7	24
2	Marseille	11	7	1	3	+14	+7.7	22
3	Monaco	11	6	2	3	+6	+7.6	20
4	Strasbourg	11	6	1	4	+6	+7.8	19
5	Lyon	10	6	1	3	+4	+8.3	19
6	Lens	10	6	1	3	+4	+2.5	19
7	Lille	10	5	2	3	+9	+6.1	17
8	Nice	11	5	2	4	+0	-7.6	17
9	Rennes	11	3	6	2	+1	-1.4	15
10	Toulouse	10	4	2	4	+2	+0.6	14
11	Paris FC	11	4	2	5	-2	-2.5	14
12	Le Havre	10	3	3	4	-4	-0.4	12
13	Angers	10	2	4	4	-6	-8.8	10
14	Brest	10	2	3	5	-4	-0.2	9
15	Nantes	10	2	3	5	-5	-10.2	9
16	Lorient	10	2	3	5	-9	-2.1	9
17	Auxerre	11	2	1	8	-10	-6.1	7
18	Metz	10	1	2	7	-18	-10.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	5	4	1	0	+12	+8.3	13
2	Monaco	6	4	1	1	+6	+6.8	13
3	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+6	+4.9	13
4	Nice	6	4	1	1	+5	-1.3	13
5	Strasbourg	5	4	0	1	+9	+9.4	12
6	Lens	5	4	0	1	+6	+6.8	12
7	Lyon	5	4	0	1	+5	+6.3	12
8	Rennes	6	3	2	1	+5	+2.7	11
9	Lille	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.8	10
10	Toulouse	5	2	2	1	+3	+3.0	8
11	Le Havre	5	2	2	1	+2	+5.1	8
12	Angers	5	2	2	1	+1	-2.4	8
13	Lorient	5	2	2	1	+0	+0.4	8
14	Paris FC	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.3	7
15	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-2	-0.6	6
16	Brest	5	1	2	2	-1	+2.0	5
17	Metz	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.1	5
18	Nantes	5	1	1	3	-4	-5.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	3	2	1	+6	+3.8	11
2	Marseille	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.6	9
3	Lille	5	2	1	2	+3	+1.3	7
4	Monaco	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.8	7
5	Lyon	5	2	1	2	-1	+2.0	7
6	Lens	5	2	1	2	-2	-4.3	7
7	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.7	7
8	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	-3	-2.8	7
9	Toulouse	5	2	0	3	-1	-2.4	6
10	Nantes	5	1	2	2	-1	-4.6	5
11	Brest	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.2	4
12	Rennes	5	0	4	1	-4	-4.0	4
13	Nice	5	1	1	3	-5	-6.3	4
14	Le Havre	5	1	1	3	-6	-5.5	4
15	Angers	5	0	2	3	-7	-6.4	2
16	Auxerre	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.4	1
17	Lorient	5	0	1	4	-9	-2.4	1
18	Metz	5	0	0	5	-16	-9.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.