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Premier League
Referee: Andy Madley
1–4
Full-time
Man City
S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crystal Palace Man City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
1,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
0,0
2,0
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,66 xG 2,21
28% Possession 72%
9 Shots 18
1 Shots on target 9
1 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 6
3 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Crystal Palace 16. · Man City 7.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Brighton 1 1 0 0 +4 +3.5 3
2 Arsenal 1 1 0 0 +3 +1.7 3
3 Brentford 1 1 0 0 +3 +3.3 3
4 Everton 1 1 0 0 +2 -0.8 3
5 Hull 1 1 0 0 +2 -0.8 3
6 Chelsea 1 1 0 0 +1 +0.9 3
7 Man City 1 1 0 0 +1 +1.6 3
8 Ipswich 1 1 0 0 +1 +1.1 3
9 Leeds 1 1 0 0 +1 -0.2 3
10 Newcastle 1 0 1 0 +0 -1.4 1
11 Liverpool 1 0 1 0 +0 +1.4 1
12 Fulham 1 0 0 1 -1 -0.9 0
13 Bournemouth 1 0 0 1 -1 -1.6 0
14 Sunderland 1 0 0 1 -1 -1.1 0
15 Nott'm Forest 1 0 0 1 -1 +0.2 0
16 Crystal Palace 1 0 0 1 -2 +0.8 0
17 Man United 1 0 0 1 -2 +0.8 0
18 Coventry 1 0 0 1 -3 -1.7 0
19 Tottenham 1 0 0 1 -3 -3.3 0
20 Aston Villa 1 0 0 1 -4 -3.5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Crystal Palace Man City
17′
E. Haaland 0–1
A. Semenyo
33′
🟨 Rayan Cherki
Half-time 0–2
54′
R. Cherki 0–2
P. Foden
55′
🟨 Elliot Anderson
0–3 G. Donnarumma
own goal
56′
59′
R. Cherki 0–4
J. Gvardiol
E. Guessand 🔁
↦ J. Larsen
63′
Anan Khalaili 🟨
68′
D. McNeil 🔁
↦ E. Nketiah
68′
Z. Gozo 🔁
↦ Y. Pino
68′
A. Disasi 🔁
↦ T. Tomiyasu
74′
O. Mingueza 🔁
↦ A. Khalaili
75′
75′
🔁 M. Kovacic
↦ J. Gvardiol
82′
🔁 R. McAidoo
↦ R. Cherki
82′
🔁 A. Bouaddi
↦ E. Anderson
84′
E. Haaland 0–5
P. Foden
89′
🔁 Vitor Reis
↦ A. Khusanov
89′
🔁 K. Braithwaite
↦ N. O'Reilly
Full-time 0–5

Line-ups

Crystal Palace

3-4-2-1
1 D. Henderson G
6 J. Canvot D
26 C. Richards D
17 T. Tomiyasu D
25 A. Khalaili M
20 A. Wharton M
18 D. Kamada M
3 T. Mitchell M
10 Y. Pino F
9 E. Nketiah F
22 J. Larsen F
Bench (9)
44 W. Benitez
5 A. Disasi
30 O. Mingueza
2 D. Munoz
19 W. Hughes
8 J. Lerma
11 D. McNeil
29 E. Guessand
12 Z. Gozo

Coach: Pierre Sage

Man City

4-2-3-1
1 G. Donnarumma G
45 A. Khusanov D
3 R. Dias D
6 M. Guehi D
24 J. Gvardiol D
33 N. O'Reilly M
5 E. Anderson M
47 P. Foden M
10 R. Cherki M
42 A. Semenyo M
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (9)
28 G. Rulli
21 R. Ait-Nouri
82 R. Lewis
22 Vitor Reis
61 K. Braithwaite
30 C. Echeverri
56 R. McAidoo
8 M. Kovacic
32 A. Bouaddi

Coach: Enzo Maresca

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,83
U
3,95
B ✓
1,67
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,68
U2,5
2,12
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Andy Madley · 129 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.