Premier League
Referee: Thomas Bramall
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
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Who wins?
Pro
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Team trends
Arsenal
Coventry
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,8
2,7
Scored
1,5
2,2
Conceded
0,3
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Goal markets
Pro
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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Most likely result
Pro
The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Match stats
Half-time score: 2–0
1,88
xG
0,20
64%
Possession
36%
20
Shots
4
6
Shots on target
1
8
Blocked shots
1
1
Goalkeeper saves
2
8
Corners
2
5
Offside
0
10
Free kicks against
13
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
Match report
Arsenal
Coventry
1–0 K. Havertz
⚽
R. Calafiori
2–0 B. Saka
⚽
🟨
Caleb Yirenkyi
Gabriel Magalhães
🟨
Half-time 3–0
3–0 M. Odegaard
⚽
B. White
🔁
V. Torp
↦ C. Yirenkyi
M. Zubimendi
🔁
↦ D. Rice
N. Madueke
🔁
↦ B. Saka
🔁
J. Rudoni
↦ B. Thomas-Asante
🔁
T. Awoniyi
↦ E. Simms
M. Merino
🔁
↦ M. Odegaard
E. Eze
🔁
↦ C. Tzolis
P. Hincapie
🔁
↦ R. Calafiori
🔁
G. Hamer
↦ L. Tchaouna
Full-time 3–0
Line-ups
Arsenal
4-2-3-1
1
D. Raya
G
D. Raya
G
4
B. White
D
B. White
D
3
C. Mosquera
D
C. Mosquera
D
6
Gabriel
D
Gabriel
D
33
R. Calafiori
D
R. Calafiori
D
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
M
M. Lewis-Skelly
M
41
D. Rice
M
D. Rice
M
7
B. Saka
M
B. Saka
M
8
M. Odegaard
M
M. Odegaard
M
17
C. Tzolis
M
C. Tzolis
M
29
K. Havertz
F
K. Havertz
F
Bench (9)
13
K. Arrizabalaga
5
P. Hincapie
36
M. Zubimendi
22
E. Nwaneri
56
M. Dowman
23
M. Merino
10
E. Eze
14
V. Gyökeres
20
N. Madueke
Coach: Mikel Arteta
Coventry
4-1-4-1
19
C. Rushworth
G
C. Rushworth
G
27
M. van Ewijk
D
M. van Ewijk
D
4
B. Thomas
D
B. Thomas
D
24
A. Amenda
D
A. Amenda
D
3
J. Dasilva
D
J. Dasilva
D
6
M. Grimes
M
M. Grimes
M
18
L. Tchaouna
M
L. Tchaouna
M
8
C. Yirenkyi
M
C. Yirenkyi
M
16
F. Onyeka
M
F. Onyeka
M
23
B. Thomas-Asante
M
B. Thomas-Asante
M
9
E. Simms
F
E. Simms
F
Bench (9)
13
B. Wilson
15
L. Kitching
29
V. Torp
22
J. Latibeaudiere
7
T. Sakamoto
38
G. Hamer
28
J. Eccles
5
J. Rudoni
14
T. Awoniyi
Coach: Frank Lampard
Odds comparison
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
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The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.