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Primeira Liga

Referee: Jose Bessa

Alverca

S T U T T

2–2

Full-time

Estrela

T T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alverca Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

0,0

2,0

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,94 xG 1,36

46% Possession 54%

14 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 0

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alverca 18. · Estrela 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
2	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
3	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
4	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
5	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.8	3
6	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
7	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
8	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
9	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.4	1
10	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
11	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
12	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
13	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
14	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
15	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
16	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
17	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.9	0
18	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
2	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
3	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
4	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
5	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
6	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
7	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
8	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
9	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
10	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.8	3
2	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
3	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.4	1
4	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
5	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.5	1
6	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
7	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
8	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
9	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
10	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.