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Primeira Liga
Referee: Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves
Estrela
T T T U U
2–2
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,3
3,8
Scored
0,8
2,7
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,10 xG 2,63
44% Possession 56%
9 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 8
2 Blocked shots 2
6 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

11. Apr -26 Estrela – Sp Lisbon 0–1 30. Nov -25 Sp Lisbon – Estrela 4–0 29. Mar -25 Estrela – Sp Lisbon 0–3 1. Nov -24 Sp Lisbon – Estrela 5–1 29. Mar -24 Estrela – Sp Lisbon 1–2

Match report

Estrela Sp Lisbon
Half-time 0–1
46′
⚽ R. Zalazar 0–1
G. Catamo
Eddy Doué 🟨
52′
59′
⚽ F. Ioannidis 0–2
R. Zalazar
61′
🔁 L. Suarez
↦ F. Ioannidis
61′
🔁 S. Andersen
↦ F. Goncalves
Robinho 🔁
↦ S. Serra
65′
67′
🟨 Luis Javier Suárez
1–2 L. Antonetti ⚽
I. Stoica
72′
B. Souza 🔁
↦ I. Stoica
74′
J. Encada 🔁
↦ M. Scholze
74′
78′
🔁 Luis Guilherme
↦ G. Catamo
78′
🔁 I. Fresneda
↦ G. Vagiannidis
82′
🔁 J. Derry
↦ I. Doumbia
1–3 R. Silva ⚽
own goal
84′
S. van Hooijdonk 🔁
↦ L. Antonetti
89′
Alisson Souza 🔁
↦ A. Marcus
89′
Bénito 🟨
92′
92′
🟨 Jesse Derry
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Estrela

4-2-3-1
24 Leo Linck G
21 M. Scholze D
30 Luan Patrick D
4 Bernardo Schappo D
55 Rafa Soares D
78 S. Serra M
39 G. Doue M
99 A. Marcus M
14 L. Zvonarek M
10 I. Stoica M
37 L. Antonetti F
Bench (12)
22 D. Grilo
51 D. Pinto
9 S. van Hooijdonk
79 A. Chernev
28 T. Moustier
93 B. Souza
71 E. Pedro Vanga
17 J. Encada
8 Robinho
3 L. Mincarelli
80 Alisson Souza
72 H. Poniewas

Coach: Pepa

Sp Lisbon

4-2-3-1
1 R. Silva G
13 G. Vagiannidis D
72 E. Quaresma D
25 G. Inacio D
50 R. Dias D
5 S. Altimira M
77 I. Doumbia M
10 G. Catamo M
17 R. Zalazar M
58 F. Goncalves M
7 F. Ioannidis F
Bench (11)
12 J. Virginia
41 Diego Callai
97 L. Suarez
4 S. Andersen
21 Pedro Lima
26 O. Diomande
9 R. Nel
31 Luis Guilherme
73 E. Felicissimo
22 I. Fresneda
28 J. Derry

Coach: Rui Borges

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
11,30
🔒
U ✓
5,96
🔒
B
1,22
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,51
🔒
U2,5
2,42
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves · 14 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,91 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.