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Serie A

Referee: G Manganiello

Milan

T S U T T

1–2

Full-time

Lazio

S S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 48%

42%

54%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

54%

73%

Both score Ø 60%

54%

65%

Average goals

2,5

3,1

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,45 xG 3,08

61% Possession 39%

15 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 9. · Lazio 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	27	17	7	3	+35	+25.4	58
2	Napoli	27	17	6	4	+21	+16.8	57
3	Atalanta	27	16	7	4	+33	+21.3	55
4	Juventus	26	12	13	1	+22	+13.3	49
5	Lazio	26	14	5	7	+13	+12.3	47
6	Bologna	27	12	11	4	+9	+10.4	47
7	Fiorentina	27	13	6	8	+14	+7.0	45
8	Roma	27	12	7	8	+12	+7.2	43
9	Milan	26	11	8	7	+10	+16.0	41
10	Udinese	27	11	6	10	-3	-8.0	39
11	Torino	27	8	10	9	-1	-12.2	34
12	Genoa	27	7	10	10	-10	-6.2	31
13	Como	27	7	7	13	-10	+0.7	28
14	Verona	26	8	2	16	-27	-14.6	26
15	Cagliari	27	6	7	14	-15	-10.9	25
16	Lecce	27	6	7	14	-25	-17.6	25
17	Parma	27	5	8	14	-14	-15.6	23
18	Empoli	27	4	10	13	-21	-13.2	22
19	Venezia	27	3	9	15	-19	-17.3	18
20	Monza	27	2	8	17	-24	-14.8	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	9	3	1	+15	+11.7	30
2	Bologna	14	8	5	1	+11	+13.3	29
3	Napoli	13	9	2	2	+10	+14.0	29
4	Roma	14	9	1	4	+17	+8.5	28
5	Fiorentina	14	8	3	3	+8	+7.9	27
6	Atalanta	13	7	4	2	+13	+11.7	25
7	Juventus	13	6	7	0	+12	+9.1	25
8	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+8	+9.0	25
9	Milan	13	6	6	1	+11	+11.7	24
10	Udinese	14	7	2	5	+2	-3.4	23
11	Como	13	5	3	5	+0	+2.0	18
12	Torino	13	4	5	4	+0	-6.1	17
13	Genoa	14	3	7	4	-2	-1.4	16
14	Parma	14	4	3	7	-3	-3.3	15
15	Cagliari	14	4	3	7	-8	-2.4	15
16	Lecce	13	3	5	5	-13	-4.0	14
17	Venezia	13	3	4	6	-3	-1.7	13
18	Verona	13	4	1	8	-18	-5.1	13
19	Empoli	13	1	5	7	-14	-5.4	8
20	Monza	14	1	4	9	-9	-4.8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	14	9	3	2	+20	+9.6	30
2	Inter	14	8	4	2	+20	+13.7	28
3	Napoli	14	8	4	2	+11	+2.8	28
4	Juventus	13	6	6	1	+10	+4.2	24
5	Lazio	13	7	1	5	+5	+3.3	22
6	Fiorentina	13	5	3	5	+6	-0.9	18
7	Bologna	13	4	6	3	-2	-2.8	18
8	Torino	14	4	5	5	-1	-6.1	17
9	Milan	13	5	2	6	-1	+4.4	17
10	Udinese	13	4	4	5	-5	-4.6	16
11	Roma	13	3	6	4	-5	-1.3	15
12	Genoa	13	4	3	6	-8	-4.8	15
13	Empoli	14	3	5	6	-7	-7.8	14
14	Verona	13	4	1	8	-9	-9.5	13
15	Lecce	14	3	2	9	-12	-13.6	11
16	Cagliari	13	2	4	7	-7	-8.6	10
17	Como	14	2	4	8	-10	-1.3	10
18	Parma	13	1	5	7	-11	-12.3	8
19	Monza	13	1	4	8	-15	-10.0	7
20	Venezia	14	0	5	9	-16	-15.6	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.