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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Lazio

T U T U S

1–0

Full-time

Milan

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 47%

32%

61%

Points per game

1,3

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

29%

43%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,41 xG 1,40

41% Possession 59%

7 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 9

3 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 10. · Milan 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	29	22	2	5	+42	+35.0	68
2	Milan	28	17	9	2	+24	+16.6	60
3	Napoli	29	18	5	6	+15	+9.1	59
4	Como	29	15	9	5	+26	+20.8	54
5	Juventus	29	15	8	6	+23	+27.7	53
6	Roma	29	16	3	10	+16	+7.2	51
7	Atalanta	29	12	11	6	+13	+11.4	47
8	Bologna	29	12	6	11	+4	+0.3	42
9	Sassuolo	29	11	5	13	-4	-11.6	38
10	Lazio	28	9	10	9	+0	-6.1	37
11	Udinese	29	10	6	13	-9	-10.1	36
12	Parma	29	8	10	11	-15	-17.4	34
13	Genoa	29	8	9	12	-4	+0.6	33
14	Torino	29	9	6	14	-18	-9.1	33
15	Cagliari	29	7	9	13	-10	-14.9	30
16	Lecce	29	7	6	16	-18	-19.9	27
17	Fiorentina	28	5	10	13	-12	+5.6	25
18	Cremonese	28	5	9	14	-18	-19.4	24
19	Pisa	29	2	12	15	-26	-16.6	18
20	Verona	29	3	9	17	-29	-9.0	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	11	2	2	+26	+21.9	35
2	Napoli	14	10	4	0	+12	+1.5	34
3	Juventus	14	8	5	1	+17	+16.8	29
4	Como	15	8	5	2	+15	+15.6	29
5	Roma	14	9	2	3	+13	+9.7	29
6	Atalanta	15	8	5	2	+11	+14.1	29
7	Milan	14	8	4	2	+8	+10.6	28
8	Lazio	14	6	4	4	+3	+1.5	22
9	Torino	15	6	2	7	-4	-4.2	20
10	Sassuolo	15	6	2	7	-4	-8.0	20
11	Genoa	15	5	4	6	+0	+3.1	19
12	Udinese	15	5	4	6	-3	-2.3	19
13	Bologna	14	5	2	7	-2	+2.5	17
14	Cagliari	14	4	4	6	-1	-4.9	16
15	Lecce	15	4	4	7	-8	-3.5	16
16	Fiorentina	14	3	5	6	-1	+8.6	14
17	Parma	14	3	5	6	-8	-7.7	14
18	Cremonese	13	2	6	5	-6	-4.2	12
19	Pisa	15	2	4	9	-11	-4.1	10
20	Verona	14	1	4	9	-11	-2.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	11	0	3	+16	+13.1	33
2	Milan	14	9	5	0	+16	+6.0	32
3	Como	14	7	4	3	+11	+5.2	25
4	Bologna	15	7	4	4	+6	-2.2	25
5	Napoli	15	8	1	6	+3	+7.5	25
6	Juventus	15	7	3	5	+6	+10.9	24
7	Roma	15	7	1	7	+3	-2.5	22
8	Parma	15	5	5	5	-7	-9.7	20
9	Atalanta	14	4	6	4	+2	-2.7	18
10	Sassuolo	14	5	3	6	+0	-3.6	18
11	Udinese	14	5	2	7	-6	-7.8	17
12	Lazio	14	3	6	5	-3	-7.6	15
13	Genoa	14	3	5	6	-4	-2.5	14
14	Cagliari	15	3	5	7	-9	-10.0	14
15	Torino	14	3	4	7	-14	-4.9	13
16	Cremonese	15	3	3	9	-12	-15.1	12
17	Lecce	14	3	2	9	-10	-16.4	11
18	Fiorentina	14	2	5	7	-11	-3.0	11
19	Verona	15	2	5	8	-18	-6.4	11
20	Pisa	14	0	8	6	-15	-12.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.