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Eredivisie

Referee: Marc Nagtegaal

Ajax

S U S T U

2–1

Full-time

NAC Breda

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,87 xG 1,56

51% Possession 49%

12 Shots 17

7 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 7

2 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Ajax 3. · NAC Breda 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	6	5	1	0	+10	+7.9	16
2	PSV Eindhoven	6	4	1	1	+9	+4.2	13
3	Ajax	6	3	3	0	+6	+5.4	12
4	AZ Alkmaar	6	3	3	0	+5	+5.2	12
5	Groningen	6	4	0	2	+3	+0.2	12
6	Twente	7	3	1	3	+2	+6.7	10
7	For Sittard	7	3	1	3	+0	-5.3	10
8	Nijmegen	6	3	0	3	+7	+5.4	9
9	Utrecht	6	3	0	3	+6	+1.3	9
10	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	+2	-0.5	9
11	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	0	3	-8	-4.7	9
12	Zwolle	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.1	7
13	NAC Breda	6	2	1	3	-4	-5.6	7
14	Excelsior	6	2	0	4	-8	-5.3	6
15	Heerenveen	6	1	2	3	-2	+6.2	5
16	Volendam	6	0	4	2	-4	-4.8	4
17	Telstar	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.2	4
18	Heracles	6	0	0	6	-15	-10.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Groningen	3	3	0	0	+7	+0.9	9
2	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.0	9
3	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.8	9
4	PSV Eindhoven	4	2	1	1	+5	+3.2	7
5	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.8	7
6	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+6	+5.0	6
7	Utrecht	3	2	0	1	+6	+1.5	6
8	NAC Breda	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
9	AZ Alkmaar	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.9	5
10	Heerenveen	4	1	2	1	+0	+4.5	5
11	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.6	4
12	Twente	3	1	1	1	-1	+3.2	4
13	Excelsior	3	1	0	2	-1	-3.6	3
14	Zwolle	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.0	3
15	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	0	2	-7	-3.4	3
16	Volendam	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.9	2
17	Telstar	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.4	1
18	Heracles	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+5	+4.1	7
2	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.2	7
3	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.0	6
4	Twente	4	2	0	2	+3	+3.5	6
5	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	0	1	-1	-1.4	6
6	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	2	0	+2	-1.1	5
7	Zwolle	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.1	4
8	Nijmegen	3	1	0	2	+1	+0.4	3
9	Ajax	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.5	3
10	Utrecht	3	1	0	2	+0	-0.1	3
11	For Sittard	4	1	0	3	-2	-6.1	3
12	Telstar	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.6	3
13	Groningen	3	1	0	2	-4	-0.8	3
14	Excelsior	3	1	0	2	-7	-1.6	3
15	Volendam	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.9	2
16	NAC Breda	3	0	1	2	-5	-7.5	1
17	Heerenveen	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.6	0
18	Heracles	4	0	0	4	-11	-6.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.