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La Liga

Referee: Miguel Sesma Espinosa

Villarreal

U T T S S

1–0

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,22 xG 1,44

42% Possession 58%

14 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 5

7 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 3. · Ath Bilbao 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	7	6	0	1	+8	+5.6	18
2	Barcelona	6	5	1	0	+15	+8.3	16
3	Villarreal	6	4	1	1	+7	+5.5	13
4	Ath Madrid	7	3	3	1	+5	+6.5	12
5	Espanol	7	3	3	1	+1	+2.6	12
6	Getafe	7	3	2	2	-1	-2.0	11
7	Elche	6	2	4	0	+3	-1.4	10
8	Ath Bilbao	6	3	1	2	+0	+3.9	10
9	Betis	6	2	3	1	+2	+4.0	9
10	Alaves	7	2	2	3	-1	-0.7	8
11	Valencia	6	2	2	2	-2	-3.0	8
12	Sevilla	6	2	1	3	+0	-4.9	7
13	Osasuna	6	2	1	3	+0	-0.9	7
14	Vallecano	6	1	2	3	-2	-0.6	5
15	Celta	6	0	5	1	-2	+1.4	5
16	Levante	7	1	2	4	-3	-1.0	5
17	Sociedad	6	1	2	3	-3	-1.1	5
18	Mallorca	7	1	2	4	-5	-7.0	5
19	Oviedo	6	1	0	5	-9	-6.1	3
20	Girona	7	0	3	4	-13	-9.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.8	10
2	Espanol	4	3	1	0	+3	+2.1	10
3	Villarreal	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.4	9
4	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.6	9
5	Valencia	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.1	7
6	Osasuna	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.0	7
7	Elche	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.7	7
8	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+1	+4.8	7
9	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+9	+5.5	6
10	Betis	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.9	6
11	Getafe	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.7	5
12	Mallorca	4	1	2	1	-2	-3.7	5
13	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.1	4
14	Alaves	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.7	4
15	Celta	4	0	3	1	-2	+1.6	3
16	Oviedo	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.9	3
17	Vallecano	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
18	Sevilla	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.7	1
19	Levante	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.5	1
20	Girona	4	0	1	3	-8	-4.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	3	1	0	+6	+2.7	10
2	Real Madrid	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.0	9
3	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+2	-3.2	6
4	Getafe	4	2	0	2	-3	-1.3	6
5	Levante	4	1	1	2	+1	+2.5	4
6	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.1	4
7	Alaves	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.4	4
8	Betis	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.1	3
9	Elche	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.7	3
10	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.9	3
11	Vallecano	4	1	0	3	-2	-0.9	3
12	Celta	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
13	Ath Madrid	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.7	2
14	Espanol	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.5	2
15	Girona	3	0	2	1	-5	-4.7	2
16	Sociedad	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.2	1
17	Valencia	3	0	1	2	-7	-6.1	1
18	Mallorca	3	0	0	3	-3	-3.3	0
19	Osasuna	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.9	0
20	Oviedo	3	0	0	3	-5	-2.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.