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Serie B

Referee: Alberto Ruben Arena

Monza

T S U T S

0–1

Full-time

Padova

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Padova

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,3

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

25%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%

13 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 9. · Padova 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Frosinone	5	3	2	0	+7	11
2	Palermo	5	3	2	0	+5	11
3	Cesena	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Modena	4	3	1	0	+7	10
5	Avellino	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Sudtirol	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Venezia	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Juve Stabia	5	1	4	0	+2	7
9	Monza	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Carrarese	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Catanzaro	5	0	5	0	+0	5
12	Reggiana	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Virtus Entella	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Pescara	4	1	1	2	+1	4
15	Padova	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Empoli	4	1	1	2	-4	4
17	Mantova	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Spezia	5	0	2	3	-6	2
19	Bari	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	Sampdoria	4	0	0	4	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Palermo	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	Avellino	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Sudtirol	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Venezia	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Monza	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Modena	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Pescara	3	1	1	1	+2	4
8	Reggiana	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Empoli	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Frosinone	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Virtus Entella	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Catanzaro	3	0	3	0	+0	3
13	Padova	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Mantova	3	1	0	2	-5	3
15	Cesena	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Juve Stabia	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Bari	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Carrarese	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Spezia	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Sampdoria	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cesena	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Frosinone	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Modena	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Juve Stabia	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	Carrarese	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Palermo	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Avellino	3	1	1	1	-1	4
8	Sudtirol	2	0	2	0	+0	2
9	Catanzaro	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Venezia	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Monza	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Spezia	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Padova	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Reggiana	3	0	1	2	-3	1
15	Virtus Entella	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Pescara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Mantova	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Sampdoria	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Bari	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.