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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Reichel

Mainz

T S U T S

0–2

Full-time

Dortmund

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,7

2,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

25%

75%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

25%

50%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,48 xG 1,44

49% Possession 51%

8 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 5

5 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 13. · Dortmund 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	5	0	0	+19	+12.1	15
2	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.3	10
3	RB Leipzig	4	3	0	1	-1	+2.5	9
4	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.4	7
5	St Pauli	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.8	7
6	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.2	6
7	Freiburg	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.3	6
8	Stuttgart	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.5	6
9	Hoffenheim	4	2	0	2	-2	-2.5	6
10	Union Berlin	4	2	0	2	-3	-3.2	6
11	Leverkusen	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.9	5
12	Wolfsburg	4	1	2	1	+1	-0.0	5
13	Mainz	4	1	1	2	+1	+2.0	4
14	Werder Bremen	5	1	1	3	-6	-5.4	4
15	Hamburg	4	1	1	2	-6	-4.4	4
16	Augsburg	4	1	0	3	-3	-7.5	3
17	M'gladbach	4	0	2	2	-5	+0.4	2
18	Heidenheim	4	0	0	4	-7	-4.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+15	+6.2	9
2	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.8	6
3	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
4	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
5	Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.4	4
6	St Pauli	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.9	4
7	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
8	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.5	3
9	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.3	3
10	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
11	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.7	3
12	Wolfsburg	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.5	2
13	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.7	1
14	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-4	+0.1	1
15	Mainz	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
16	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-4	-5.1	0
17	Heidenheim	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.1	0
18	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+4	+5.9	6
2	Hoffenheim	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.1	6
3	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+3	+2.7	4
4	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.6	4
5	FC Koln	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.6	4
6	Augsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.4	3
7	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.4	3
8	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.3	3
9	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
10	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
11	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.6	3
12	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-3	-4.6	3
13	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	-5	-0.3	3
14	Leverkusen	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
15	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.3	1
16	Hamburg	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.7	1
17	Stuttgart	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.4	0
18	Heidenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.