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Eredivisie
Referee: Dennis Higler
Excelsior
T T S T S
1–2
Full-time
PSV Eindhoven
S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior PSV Eindhoven
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
4,3
Scored
0,8
2,3
Conceded
2,2
2,0
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
4,8
Scored
0,8
3,2
Conceded
2,2
1,7
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,17 xG 2,67
37% Possession 63%
18 Shots 18
5 Shots on target 8
6 Blocked shots 3
6 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 2
0 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 5
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Excelsior 15. · PSV Eindhoven 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Feyenoord 6 5 1 0 +10 +7.9 16
2 Ajax 7 4 3 0 +7 +5.8 15
3 PSV Eindhoven 6 4 1 1 +9 +4.2 13
4 AZ Alkmaar 6 3 3 0 +5 +5.2 12
5 Groningen 6 4 0 2 +3 +0.2 12
6 Twente 7 3 1 3 +2 +6.7 10
7 For Sittard 7 3 1 3 +0 -5.3 10
8 Nijmegen 6 3 0 3 +7 +5.4 9
9 Utrecht 6 3 0 3 +6 +1.3 9
10 Go Ahead Eagles 6 2 3 1 +2 -0.5 9
11 Sparta Rotterdam 6 3 0 3 -8 -4.7 9
12 Volendam 7 1 4 2 -3 -3.8 7
13 Zwolle 7 2 1 4 -4 -5.1 7
14 NAC Breda 7 2 1 4 -5 -6.0 7
15 Excelsior 6 2 0 4 -8 -5.3 6
16 Heerenveen 6 1 2 3 -2 +6.2 5
17 Telstar 6 1 1 4 -6 -1.2 4
18 Heracles 6 0 0 6 -15 -10.9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Excelsior PSV Eindhoven
1–0 S. Wlodarczyk
13′
19′
J. Veerman 1–1
32′
🔁 G. Til
↦ R. Pepi
Half-time 1–1
J. Bergraaf 🔁
↦ S. Wlodarczyk
60′
70′
🔁 D. Man
↦ P. Wanner
C. Nadje 🔁
↦ N. Naujoks
71′
S. Mitrovic 🔁
↦ D. Sanches Fernandes
71′
72′
I. Saibari 1–2
D. Man
L. Schouten 🔁
↦ A. Carlen
81′
M. van Duinen 🔁
↦ G. de Regt
81′
85′
🔁 A. Obispo
↦ A. Salah-Eddine
85′
🔁 C. Driouech
↦ I. Perisic
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Excelsior

4-2-3-1
1 S. van Gassel G
2 I. Bronkhorst D
4 C. Widell D
3 R. Meissen D
12 A. Zagre D
10 N. Naujoks M
6 A. Carlen M
30 D. Sanches Fernandes M
23 I. Yegoian M
11 G. de Regt M
9 S. Wlodarczyk F
Bench (11)
16 C. Raatsie
5 S. Henderikx
15 S. Janssen
17 N. Martens
14 L. Schouten
25 S. Middendorp
18 C. Nadje
33 J. Bergraaf
22 S. Mitrovic
29 M. van Duinen
7 D. Yoon

Coach: Ruben den Uil

PSV Eindhoven

4-3-3
32 M. Kovar G
17 Mauro Junior D
6 R. Flamingo D
3 Y. Gasiorowski D
2 A. Salah-Eddine D
22 J. Schouten M
34 I. Saibari M
23 J. Veerman M
10 P. Wanner F
9 R. Pepi F
5 I. Perisic F
Bench (9)
1 N. Olij
24 N. Schiks
39 A. Nagalo
4 A. Obispo
31 N. Fernandez
20 G. Til
19 E. Bajraktarevic
11 C. Driouech
27 D. Man

Coach: Peter Sylvester Bosz

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
9,66
U
6,50
B ✓
1,24
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,28
U2,5
3,49
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Dennis Higler · 127 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.