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Eredivisie
Referee: Siemen Mulder
Ajax
S U T S T
5–0
Full-time
NAC Breda
S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax NAC Breda
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
5,8
2,7
Scored
3,8
0,8
Conceded
2,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,8
-1,0
This season — Eredivisie · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 48%
76%
19%
Points per game
2,4
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
76%
67%
Both score Ø 41%
33%
48%
Average goals
4,3
3,3
Scored
3,4
1,0
Conceded
0,9
2,2
Goal diff per game
+2,5
-1,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

72% Possession 28%
33 Shots 6
10 Shots on target 2
12 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 6
13 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ajax 2. · NAC Breda 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 22 18 3 1 +58 57
2 Ajax 21 16 2 3 +53 50
3 Feyenoord 21 13 3 5 +20 42
4 AZ Alkmaar 22 12 4 6 +20 40
5 Heracles 21 10 2 9 +0 32
6 VVV Venlo 22 8 5 9 -10 29
7 Vitesse 19 7 6 6 +2 27
8 Den Haag 22 7 6 9 -11 27
9 Utrecht 19 7 5 7 +1 26
10 For Sittard 22 7 5 10 -12 26
11 Willem II 22 7 4 11 -8 25
12 Zwolle 22 7 4 11 -9 25
13 Heerenveen 22 5 9 8 -5 24
14 FC Emmen 21 6 6 9 -20 24
15 Excelsior 21 6 4 11 -23 22
16 Groningen 19 6 3 10 -3 21
17 De Graafschap 21 5 3 13 -28 18
18 NAC Breda 21 4 4 13 -25 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ajax NAC Breda
36′
🟨 Gianluca Nijholt
38′
🟨 Dorian Dervite
1–0 D. Tadić
38′
Half-time 1–0
K. Dolberg 🔁
↦ L. Schöne
46′
2–0 K. Dolberg
H. Ziyech
53′
2–1 G. Kastaneer
own goal
59′
Hakim Ziyech 🟨
65′
3–1 D. Tadić
67′
3–2 E. Palmer-Brown
own goal
71′
J. Veltman 🔁
↦ N. Tagliafico
73′
J. Ekkelenkamp 🔁
↦ D. Tadić
73′
76′
🔁 D. Klomp
↦ D. Dervite
79′
🔁 R. Mühren
↦ G. Kastaneer
88′
🔁 G. Korte
↦ M. Rosheuvel
90′
🟨 Menno Koch
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3
24 A. Onana G
17 D. Blind D
31 N. Tagliafico D
4 M. de Ligt D
20 L. Schöne M
22 H. Ziyech M
6 D. van de Beek M
12 N. Mazraoui D
21 F. de Jong M
10 D. Tadić F
7 David Neres F
Bench (9)
25 K. Dolberg
3 J. Veltman
40 J. Ekkelenkamp
2 R. Kristensen
8 D. Sinkgraven
9 K. Huntelaar
19 Z. Labyad
26 K. Lamprou
30 D. de Wit

Coach: E. ten Hag

NAC Breda

5-4-1
1 B. van Leer G
25 D. Dervite D
46 P. van Anholt D
4 M. Koch D
14 E. Palmer-Brown D
23 A. Gersbach D
28 G. Nijholt M
12 R. Lundqvist M
8 M. El Allouchi M
17 M. Rosheuvel M
33 G. Kastaneer F
Bench (10)
24 D. Klomp
11 R. Mühren
7 G. Korte
5 K. Mets
16 T. Zwarthoed
19 S. Kaikai
21 G. Leigh
26 K. Niemczycki
27 A. Kali
29 S. van Hooijdonk

Coach: M. van der Gaag

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Siemen Mulder · 79 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
19,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.