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Eredivisie

Referee: S van der Eijk

Ajax

S S U S U

3–1

Full-time

Zwolle

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Zwolle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 4/3 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 13%

25%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,5

1,7

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,59 xG 0,53

59% Possession 41%

12 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 5. · Zwolle 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nijmegen	4	3	0	1	+10	+7.5	9
2	Utrecht	4	3	0	1	+8	+2.0	9
3	PSV Eindhoven	4	3	0	1	+7	+2.7	9
4	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.6	9
5	Ajax	4	2	2	0	+4	+4.7	8
6	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.9	7
7	Zwolle	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.1	6
8	Groningen	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.2	6
9	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	0	2	-5	-3.3	6
10	Volendam	4	0	4	0	+0	-3.7	4
11	For Sittard	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.7	4
12	Telstar	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.8	4
13	Go Ahead Eagles	4	0	3	1	-3	-2.9	3
14	Twente	4	1	0	3	-3	+1.2	3
15	NAC Breda	4	1	0	3	-5	-5.5	3
16	Excelsior	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.5	3
17	Heerenveen	4	0	2	2	-2	+4.0	2
18	Heracles	4	0	0	4	-13	-7.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nijmegen	2	2	0	0	+8	+5.2	6
2	Utrecht	2	2	0	0	+7	+1.9	6
3	PSV Eindhoven	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.9	6
4	Groningen	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.0	6
5	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.9	6
6	For Sittard	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
7	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
8	Feyenoord	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
9	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	+0	-3.6	3
10	NAC Breda	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
11	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
12	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	-3	-1.9	3
13	Volendam	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
14	Heerenveen	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.7	2
15	Telstar	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.1	1
16	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.2	1
17	Twente	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
18	Heracles	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.4	6
2	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.8	4
3	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.3	3
4	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
5	Zwolle	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
6	Utrecht	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.0	3
7	Telstar	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
8	Twente	3	1	0	2	-1	+2.1	3
9	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.4	3
10	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.7	2
11	Volendam	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
12	Ajax	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.7	2
13	Heerenveen	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.4	0
14	For Sittard	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
15	Groningen	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.2	0
16	NAC Breda	2	0	0	2	-5	-5.9	0
17	Excelsior	2	0	0	2	-8	-1.9	0
18	Heracles	3	0	0	3	-10	-5.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.