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Eredivisie

Referee: B Nijhuis

Heracles

T T T T T

1–2

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heracles AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

0,5

2,3

Conceded

3,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-2,8

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 4/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

75%

67%

Both score Ø 46%

25%

67%

Average goals

3,8

3,3

Scored

0,3

2,3

Conceded

3,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-3,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,76 xG 3,18

52% Possession 48%

19 Shots 25

6 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 8

6 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 9

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heracles 18. · AZ Alkmaar 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	0	1	+9	+3.0	12
2	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+8	+5.3	12
3	Ajax	5	3	2	0	+6	+6.7	11
4	Nijmegen	5	3	0	2	+8	+7.2	9
5	Utrecht	4	3	0	1	+8	+2.0	9
6	Sparta Rotterdam	5	3	0	2	-4	-3.3	9
7	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.9	7
8	Groningen	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.2	6
9	Go Ahead Eagles	5	1	3	1	+0	-2.1	6
10	Zwolle	4	2	0	2	-1	-1.0	6
11	For Sittard	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.7	4
12	Telstar	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.8	4
13	Volendam	5	0	4	1	-3	-4.5	4
14	Twente	5	1	1	3	-3	+2.8	4
15	NAC Breda	5	1	1	3	-5	-7.1	4
16	Excelsior	5	1	0	4	-9	-5.6	3
17	Heerenveen	5	0	2	3	-3	+4.3	2
18	Heracles	4	0	0	4	-13	-7.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.0	9
2	Utrecht	2	2	0	0	+7	+1.9	6
3	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+6	+5.0	6
4	PSV Eindhoven	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.9	6
5	Groningen	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.0	6
6	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.9	6
7	For Sittard	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
8	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.6	4
9	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
10	NAC Breda	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
11	Excelsior	3	1	0	2	-1	-3.6	3
12	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
13	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	-3	-1.9	3
14	Volendam	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
15	Heerenveen	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.7	2
16	Twente	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.8	1
17	Telstar	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.1	1
18	Heracles	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.4	6
2	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.0	6
3	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	0	1	-1	-1.4	6
4	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.8	4
5	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.3	3
6	Utrecht	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.0	3
7	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
8	Telstar	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
9	Twente	3	1	0	2	-1	+2.1	3
10	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.7	2
11	Ajax	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.7	2
12	Volendam	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.9	2
13	NAC Breda	3	0	1	2	-5	-7.5	1
14	For Sittard	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
15	Heerenveen	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.6	0
16	Groningen	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.2	0
17	Excelsior	2	0	0	2	-8	-1.9	0
18	Heracles	3	0	0	3	-10	-5.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.