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Eredivisie

Referee: M van den Kerkhof

Excelsior

T S U U T

0–0

Full-time

Almere City

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Almere City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

4,5

3,8

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

2,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

1,3

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

4,8

4,5

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

2,5

3,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-2,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,84 xG 1,95

49% Possession 51%

14 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 12. · Almere City 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+12	+7.2	12
2	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	+14	+10.8	11
3	AZ Alkmaar	3	3	0	0	+8	+3.5	9
4	Twente	3	3	0	0	+7	+2.0	9
5	For Sittard	5	2	3	0	+3	+3.3	9
6	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.1	8
7	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	+0	-3.3	7
8	Zwolle	5	2	1	2	-1	+2.6	7
9	Heracles	4	2	0	2	-2	-2.3	6
10	Heerenveen	5	2	0	3	-4	-5.8	6
11	Ajax	3	1	2	0	+3	+3.2	5
12	Excelsior	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.6	5
13	Nijmegen	5	1	1	3	-3	-6.4	4
14	Vitesse	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.3	3
15	Utrecht	5	1	0	4	-7	-4.4	3
16	Waalwijk	5	1	0	4	-9	+1.1	3
17	Volendam	4	0	0	4	-8	-3.1	0
18	Almere City	4	0	0	4	-10	-4.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+10	+5.9	7
2	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.9	7
3	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+6	+6.2	6
4	Go Ahead Eagles	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.2	6
5	Heracles	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.4	6
6	Zwolle	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.6	4
7	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.6	3
8	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
9	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.4	3
10	Twente	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
11	Heerenveen	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
12	Excelsior	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.2	2
13	Sparta Rotterdam	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
14	Volendam	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.6	0
15	Almere City	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.0	0
16	Vitesse	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.9	0
17	Waalwijk	2	0	0	2	-6	-0.3	0
18	Utrecht	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+6	+1.1	6
2	Twente	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.2	6
3	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.9	6
4	Sparta Rotterdam	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.1	6
5	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.8	4
6	Vitesse	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
7	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
8	Utrecht	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.2	3
9	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
10	Waalwijk	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.4	3
11	Heerenveen	3	1	0	2	-4	-5.1	3
12	For Sittard	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.7	2
13	Ajax	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.6	2
14	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	1	1	-4	-4.5	1
15	Nijmegen	3	0	1	2	-5	-6.8	1
16	Heracles	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
17	Volendam	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.5	0
18	Almere City	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.