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Ligue 1

Referee: A Kherradji

Lens

S U S T S

3–1

Full-time

Brest

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Brest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

3,99 xG 1,08

68% Possession 32%

30 Shots 9

10 Shots on target 2

11 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

15 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Lens 10. · Brest 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.2	6
2	Toulouse	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.1	6
3	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.9	6
4	Strasbourg	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.7	6
5	Lille	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
6	Lorient	2	1	0	1	+3	+2.9	3
7	Marseille	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
8	Monaco	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.5	3
9	Nice	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.6	3
10	Lens	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.8	3
11	Angers	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.6	3
12	Auxerre	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
13	Rennes	2	1	0	1	-3	-3.2	3
14	Brest	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.1	1
15	Nantes	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.6	0
16	Le Havre	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.3	0
17	Paris FC	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.8	0
18	Metz	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lorient	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.0	3
2	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
3	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
4	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
5	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
6	Nice	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.6	3
7	Angers	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
8	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
9	Lille	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
10	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
11	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
12	Auxerre	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
13	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
14	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
15	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
16	Metz	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
17	Lens	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
2	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
3	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
4	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
5	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
6	Lille	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
7	Marseille	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
8	Monaco	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
9	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
10	Angers	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
11	Lorient	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
12	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
13	Auxerre	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
14	Brest	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
15	Metz	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
16	Paris FC	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.8	0
17	Rennes	1	0	0	1	-4	-3.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.