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Ligue 1

Referee: C Turpin

Brest

S S U U S

0–1

Full-time

Nice

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

44%

33%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

56%

44%

Both score Ø 56%

44%

67%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

1,4

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,02 xG 1,52

64% Possession 36%

16 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 4

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brest 10. · Nice 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	8	2	0	+21	+19.2	26
2	Monaco	10	6	2	2	+8	+9.8	20
3	Lille	10	5	3	2	+7	+4.4	18
4	Marseille	9	5	2	2	+10	-1.9	17
5	Lyon	10	4	3	3	+2	+3.9	15
6	Reims	9	4	2	3	+2	-4.2	14
7	Lens	10	3	5	2	+2	+2.2	14
8	Nice	9	3	4	2	+9	+5.5	13
9	Strasbourg	9	3	4	2	+2	+1.3	13
10	Brest	9	4	1	4	-2	-5.5	13
11	Rennes	9	3	2	4	+1	+1.0	11
12	Nantes	9	2	4	3	-1	-2.5	10
13	Auxerre	9	3	1	5	-5	-3.8	10
14	Angers	10	2	4	4	-5	-4.9	10
15	Toulouse	9	2	3	4	-1	+6.8	9
16	St Etienne	9	2	1	6	-16	-10.9	7
17	Le Havre	9	2	0	7	-13	-8.0	6
18	Montpellier	9	1	1	7	-21	-12.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	5	0	0	+13	+10.2	15
2	Strasbourg	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.0	11
3	Monaco	6	3	2	1	+3	+6.0	11
4	Rennes	5	3	1	1	+6	+3.1	10
5	Brest	5	3	1	1	+4	-0.5	10
6	Auxerre	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.9	9
7	Nice	4	2	2	0	+9	+5.0	8
8	Lille	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.4	8
9	Lyon	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.1	7
10	Reims	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
11	St Etienne	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.2	6
12	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.8	5
13	Lens	4	1	2	1	+0	+2.8	5
14	Marseille	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.9	5
15	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-1	+3.6	5
16	Angers	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.7	4
17	Montpellier	5	1	1	3	-9	-3.1	4
18	Le Havre	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	5	4	0	1	+11	+0.0	12
2	Paris SG	5	3	2	0	+8	+9.0	11
3	Lille	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.8	10
4	Monaco	4	3	0	1	+5	+3.8	9
5	Lens	6	2	3	1	+2	-0.6	9
6	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
7	Reims	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.4	7
8	Angers	5	1	3	1	-1	-3.2	6
9	Nice	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.5	5
10	Nantes	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.3	5
11	Toulouse	4	1	1	2	+0	+3.2	4
12	Le Havre	5	1	0	4	-5	-2.1	3
13	Brest	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.1	3
14	Strasbourg	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.8	2
15	Rennes	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.1	1
16	Auxerre	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.7	1
17	St Etienne	5	0	1	4	-15	-11.1	1
18	Montpellier	4	0	0	4	-12	-9.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.