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Ligue 1

Referee: B Dechepy

Brest

S T U T T

1–2

Full-time

Paris FC

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Paris FC

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

2,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,0

4,3

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

2,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,57 xG 1,55

46% Possession 54%

23 Shots 7

8 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 1

3 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Brest 17. · Paris FC 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	4	3	1	0	+8	+4.7	10
2	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.3	9
3	Lyon	3	3	0	0	+5	+4.5	9
4	Monaco	4	3	0	1	+3	+0.6	9
5	Marseille	4	2	0	2	+5	+1.8	6
6	Lens	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.1	6
7	Strasbourg	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.3	6
8	Nice	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.3	6
9	Toulouse	4	2	0	2	-1	-1.7	6
10	Angers	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.8	4
11	Rennes	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.0	4
12	Le Havre	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.6	3
13	Nantes	4	1	0	3	-2	-3.8	3
14	Paris FC	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.4	3
15	Auxerre	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.9	3
16	Lorient	4	1	0	3	-7	-1.2	3
17	Brest	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.8	1
18	Metz	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+7	+3.9	6
2	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.5	6
3	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.5	6
4	Nice	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.6	6
5	Lille	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.1	6
6	Angers	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
7	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.8	3
8	Lens	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.9	3
9	Paris FC	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
10	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
11	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
12	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
13	Auxerre	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
14	Nantes	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.5	3
15	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.1	3
16	Lorient	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.0	3
17	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
18	Metz	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
2	Lille	2	1	1	0	+6	+1.6	4
3	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
4	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
5	Strasbourg	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
6	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.6	3
7	Monaco	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
8	Rennes	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.7	1
9	Angers	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
10	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
11	Nice	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.9	0
12	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.0	0
13	Nantes	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
14	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.2	0
15	Metz	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.6	0
16	Paris FC	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.8	0
17	Brest	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.2	0
18	Lorient	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.