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Ligue 1

Referee: J Brisard

Marseille

S T U T S

2–1

Full-time

Nice

T S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

3,3

0,8

Scored

2,0

0,3

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 52%

50%

54%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

36%

46%

Both score Ø 41%

50%

32%

Average goals

2,5

2,1

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

0,9

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

13 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 2

2 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 4. · Nice 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	29	20	5	4	+32	65
2	Rennes	29	16	4	9	+35	52
3	Nice	28	15	6	7	+17	51
4	Marseille	28	14	8	6	+17	50
5	Strasbourg	29	13	9	7	+18	48
6	Lille	29	12	10	7	+3	46
7	Monaco	29	12	8	9	+13	44
8	Lens	29	12	8	9	+6	44
9	Lyon	29	11	10	8	+3	43
10	Nantes	29	12	6	11	+5	42
11	Montpellier	29	12	5	12	+3	41
12	Reims	29	8	12	9	+1	36
13	Brest	29	9	8	12	-7	35
14	Angers	29	8	8	13	-9	32
15	Troyes	29	7	8	14	-15	29
16	Lorient	29	6	10	13	-19	28
17	Clermont	29	7	7	15	-23	28
18	St Etienne	29	6	9	14	-22	27
19	Metz	29	4	11	14	-26	23
20	Bordeaux	29	4	10	15	-32	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	13	1	0	+27	40
2	Rennes	15	11	1	3	+29	34
3	Nantes	15	9	2	4	+10	29
4	Monaco	15	8	4	3	+16	28
5	Strasbourg	14	8	3	3	+15	27
6	Lens	15	7	5	3	+10	26
7	Lyon	15	7	5	3	+7	26
8	Montpellier	15	7	3	5	+6	24
9	Nice	14	7	3	4	+4	24
10	Lille	14	6	6	2	+3	24
11	Marseille	14	5	5	4	+6	20
12	Angers	15	6	1	8	-2	19
13	Reims	14	4	6	4	+5	18
14	Brest	14	5	3	6	-1	18
15	Lorient	14	4	5	5	-3	17
16	Troyes	14	3	6	5	-1	15
17	St Etienne	15	3	6	6	-9	15
18	Clermont	14	3	5	6	-5	14
19	Bordeaux	15	2	5	8	-9	11
20	Metz	14	1	6	7	-10	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Marseille	14	9	3	2	+11	30
2	Nice	14	8	3	3	+13	27
3	Paris SG	15	7	4	4	+5	25
4	Lille	15	6	4	5	+0	22
5	Strasbourg	15	5	6	4	+3	21
6	Rennes	14	5	3	6	+6	18
7	Lens	14	5	3	6	-4	18
8	Reims	15	4	6	5	-4	18
9	Montpellier	14	5	2	7	-3	17
10	Lyon	14	4	5	5	-4	17
11	Brest	15	4	5	6	-6	17
12	Monaco	14	4	4	6	-3	16
13	Troyes	15	4	2	9	-14	14
14	Metz	15	3	5	7	-16	14
15	Clermont	15	4	2	9	-18	14
16	Nantes	14	3	4	7	-5	13
17	Angers	14	2	7	5	-7	13
18	St Etienne	14	3	3	8	-13	12
19	Lorient	15	2	5	8	-16	11
20	Bordeaux	14	2	5	7	-23	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.