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La Liga

Referee: Miguel Ortiz

Alaves

T T T S T

2–1

Full-time

Villarreal

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

This season — La Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 30%

18%

42%

Points per game

0,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

45%

42%

Both score Ø 44%

45%

42%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,6

Conceded

1,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

33% Possession 67%

11 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 8

1 Offside 5

14 Free kicks against 5

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 20. · Villarreal 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	33	24	6	3	+40	78
2	Sevilla	34	17	13	4	+22	64
3	Barcelona	33	18	9	6	+28	63
4	Ath Madrid	33	18	7	8	+20	61
5	Betis	33	17	6	10	+18	57
6	Sociedad	33	15	10	8	+1	55
7	Villarreal	33	14	10	9	+22	52
8	Ath Bilbao	33	12	12	9	+5	48
9	Osasuna	33	12	8	13	-10	44
10	Valencia	33	10	12	11	-4	42
11	Vallecano	33	11	7	15	-4	40
12	Celta	33	10	9	14	-1	39
13	Espanol	33	10	9	14	-8	39
14	Elche	33	10	8	15	-8	38
15	Getafe	33	8	11	14	-6	35
16	Cadiz	34	6	14	14	-17	32
17	Mallorca	33	8	8	17	-25	32
18	Granada	33	6	12	15	-20	30
19	Levante	33	5	10	18	-24	25
20	Alaves	33	6	7	20	-29	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sevilla	17	11	5	1	+18	38
2	Real Madrid	16	11	4	1	+21	37
3	Ath Madrid	17	11	4	2	+16	37
4	Villarreal	17	10	5	2	+23	35
5	Barcelona	16	10	2	4	+17	32
6	Sociedad	17	9	5	3	+5	32
7	Espanol	17	9	4	4	+6	31
8	Betis	17	9	2	6	+11	29
9	Vallecano	16	8	4	4	+10	28
10	Ath Bilbao	16	8	3	5	+7	27
11	Getafe	16	7	4	5	+6	25
12	Mallorca	17	6	6	5	-2	24
13	Elche	16	6	5	5	+3	23
14	Valencia	16	5	7	4	+3	22
15	Osasuna	17	5	6	6	-7	21
16	Celta	17	5	4	8	-2	19
17	Alaves	16	5	4	7	-5	19
18	Granada	16	4	5	7	-8	17
19	Levante	17	3	7	7	-5	16
20	Cadiz	17	2	8	7	-8	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	13	2	2	+19	41
2	Barcelona	17	8	7	2	+11	31
3	Betis	16	8	4	4	+7	28
4	Sevilla	17	6	8	3	+4	26
5	Ath Madrid	16	7	3	6	+4	24
6	Osasuna	16	7	2	7	-3	23
7	Sociedad	16	6	5	5	-4	23
8	Ath Bilbao	17	4	9	4	-2	21
9	Celta	16	5	5	6	+1	20
10	Valencia	17	5	5	7	-7	20
11	Cadiz	17	4	6	7	-9	18
12	Villarreal	16	4	5	7	-1	17
13	Elche	17	4	3	10	-11	15
14	Granada	17	2	7	8	-12	13
15	Vallecano	17	3	3	11	-14	12
16	Getafe	17	1	7	9	-12	10
17	Levante	16	2	3	11	-19	9
18	Espanol	16	1	5	10	-14	8
19	Mallorca	16	2	2	12	-23	8
20	Alaves	17	1	3	13	-24	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.