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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Muniz Ruiz

Villarreal

T U T U S

1–2

Full-time

Las Palmas

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Las Palmas

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

1,8

1,3

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

63%

13%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

2,9

1,4

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

1,6

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,99 xG 1,12

49% Possession 51%

9 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

4 Offside 5

17 Free kicks against 7

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 15. · Las Palmas 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	8	0	1	+14	+8.7	24
2	Girona	9	7	1	1	+8	+3.6	22
3	Barcelona	8	6	2	0	+11	+9.7	20
4	Ath Bilbao	9	5	2	2	+7	+7.1	17
5	Ath Madrid	7	5	1	1	+11	+5.6	16
6	Sociedad	8	4	3	1	+6	+0.6	15
7	Vallecano	9	3	4	2	-2	+1.1	13
8	Betis	8	3	3	2	-2	-2.2	12
9	Valencia	9	3	2	4	-1	-0.3	11
10	Osasuna	9	3	1	5	-5	-4.6	10
11	Getafe	8	2	3	3	-3	-2.3	9
12	Cadiz	9	2	3	4	-4	-5.4	9
13	Sevilla	8	2	2	4	+1	-2.4	8
14	Mallorca	9	1	5	3	-3	-3.8	8
15	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	-3	-2.7	8
16	Las Palmas	8	2	2	4	-3	-2.8	8
17	Alaves	8	2	1	5	-6	-0.2	7
18	Celta	8	1	2	5	-5	-2.9	5
19	Granada	8	1	2	5	-8	-6.0	5
20	Almeria	9	0	3	6	-13	-0.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+9	+5.3	12
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+8	+6.8	12
3	Sociedad	5	3	2	0	+6	+1.1	11
4	Ath Bilbao	5	3	1	1	+6	+5.7	10
5	Ath Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.7	9
6	Girona	4	3	0	1	+3	+1.3	9
7	Betis	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.6	8
8	Cadiz	5	2	2	1	+2	+3.0	8
9	Getafe	4	2	2	0	+2	+0.7	8
10	Las Palmas	4	2	2	0	+2	-0.1	8
11	Sevilla	5	2	1	2	+3	+0.8	7
12	Valencia	4	2	0	2	+2	+2.8	6
13	Alaves	4	2	0	2	-2	+1.6	6
14	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	-5	-0.6	5
15	Granada	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.4	4
16	Mallorca	4	0	3	1	-1	-2.9	3
17	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-2	-2.2	3
18	Almeria	5	0	2	3	-5	+2.1	2
19	Celta	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.7	1
20	Osasuna	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	5	4	1	0	+5	+2.2	13
2	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	+6	+1.8	12
3	Osasuna	5	3	0	2	+0	-3.2	9
4	Vallecano	5	2	2	1	+3	+1.7	8
5	Barcelona	4	2	2	0	+2	+4.5	8
6	Ath Madrid	4	2	1	1	+6	+2.0	7
7	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.5	7
8	Villarreal	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.5	5
9	Mallorca	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.0	5
10	Valencia	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.0	5
11	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.5	4
12	Celta	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.2	4
13	Betis	4	1	1	2	-6	-4.8	4
14	Sevilla	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.2	1
15	Alaves	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.8	1
16	Granada	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.6	1
17	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.0	1
18	Cadiz	4	0	1	3	-6	-8.5	1
19	Almeria	4	0	1	3	-8	-3.0	1
20	Las Palmas	4	0	0	4	-5	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.