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Bundesliga

Referee: Bastian Dankert

Bayern Munich

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Dortmund

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

4,5

3,3

Scored

4,0

2,3

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+3,5

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

4,7

2,7

Scored

4,2

2,0

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+3,7

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,48 xG 1,58

61% Possession 39%

15 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Dortmund 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	6	0	0	+22	+13.5	18
2	RB Leipzig	7	5	1	1	+1	+1.6	16
3	Stuttgart	7	5	0	2	+5	+3.5	15
4	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+8	+5.1	14
5	Leverkusen	7	4	2	1	+5	+5.7	14
6	FC Koln	7	3	2	2	+2	-1.9	11
7	Union Berlin	7	3	1	3	-3	-4.4	10
8	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	0	3	+1	+0.9	9
9	Freiburg	6	2	2	2	+0	+1.2	8
10	Hamburg	7	2	2	3	-3	-2.9	8
11	Werder Bremen	7	2	2	3	-5	-6.2	8
12	St Pauli	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.2	7
13	Augsburg	7	2	1	4	-2	-6.9	7
14	Hoffenheim	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.1	7
15	Wolfsburg	7	1	2	4	-5	-1.5	5
16	Mainz	7	1	1	5	-6	-2.0	4
17	Heidenheim	7	1	1	5	-7	-2.9	4
18	M'gladbach	7	0	3	4	-9	-1.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+15	+6.2	9
2	RB Leipzig	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.3	9
3	Stuttgart	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.8	9
4	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
5	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+3	+4.5	7
6	Union Berlin	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.7	7
7	Hamburg	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.5	6
8	FC Koln	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.1	4
9	St Pauli	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
10	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
11	Werder Bremen	3	1	1	1	-2	+0.4	4
12	Heidenheim	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
13	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.1	3
14	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	-2	-4.6	3
15	Wolfsburg	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.4	2
16	M'gladbach	4	0	2	2	-6	-1.1	2
17	Mainz	4	0	0	4	-5	-3.5	0
18	Hoffenheim	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+7	+7.3	9
2	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+3.6	7
3	Hoffenheim	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.1	7
4	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.2	7
5	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.8	7
6	RB Leipzig	4	2	1	1	-4	-0.7	7
7	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.2	6
8	Stuttgart	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.7	6
9	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	+0	-2.3	4
10	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.1	4
11	Mainz	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.5	4
12	Werder Bremen	4	1	1	2	-3	-6.6	4
13	Wolfsburg	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.9	3
14	St Pauli	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.2	3
15	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.8	3
16	Hamburg	4	0	2	2	-6	-2.5	2
17	M'gladbach	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.3	1
18	Heidenheim	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.